Despite all the hype otherwise, the 2014 elections are hardly set in stone.
It’s been fashionable since fall to predict doom for the Democrats in the 2014 mid-term elections. A typical piece was authored by Charlie Cook in The Atlantic back in March and it’s predictions are best summed up by its headline “How Doomed Are The Congressional Democrats? Pretty Doomed”. The conventional wisdom seems to be that the Democrats are certain to not retake the House of Representatives, and will likely lose their Senate majority as well.
So all those new fancy predictions sites that have sprung up since the 2012 election must agree right? Well not really. Instead they are pretty much all over the map. The Washington Post’s prediction model created by the political scientists over at The Monkey Cage blog do give the GOP a whopping 77% chance of winning the Senate, but Nate Silver’s (of 2012 fame) new independent FiveThirtyEight site predicts only a small Republican advantage while The New York Times’ new data driven project The Upshot gives the Democrats the upper hand in November.
To be sure these are different models created by different people that measure and weigh different things, so some difference is to be expected. In addition I suspect these models will begin to align more closely as we get closer to Election Day and polling data becomes more common on the close Senate races. But the conclusion is pretty clear, it’s still pretty unclear what will happen on Election Day and so predictions of doom and gloom for either party are very premature at this point.
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Does anybody remember Valarie Plame? She’s the CIA operative that was outed by Cheney’s chief of staff. Do you remember the non-stop press coverage on that and it went on for months and Scooter Libby is ended up in jail as a result. Has anybody heard that a White House email has disclosed the identity of a CIA operative in Afghanistan? There has been nary a word the press about that. That just illustrates how much of a lap dog the main stream media is for Obama. Anybody want to place bets that nobody goes to jail from the Obama… Read more »
This article reminds of that scene in the movie “Titanic “when the captain of the ship orders the band to play cheerful music to keep the passengers from panicking
That’s funny and o so accurate.
“Washington (CNN) — While Democratic candidates have not openly said President Obama is not welcome on the campaign trail, actions speak louder than words. ….” maybe the Dems are taking a different approach?
Like his predecessor, Obama’s become persona non grata in his own party.
That’s never a good sign for the home team.
Nonetheless, 2016 is still the Dems to lose.
Have you seen that the left is actively recruiting Elizabeth Warren to run for President. That can’t bode well for Hillary because she needs every single liberal vote, because Conservatives can’t stand her. I don’t see what qualifies Hillary Clinton to be President. The death of 4 Americans in Benghazi, Libya is blood on her hands.
The press and the Dem part is already making excused to not have Hillary run so they need a replacement. But if you think about it, get a couple women on the ballet so as to stage what they may see as a guaranteed women president. They focus on women voters and let’s be honest, the women have the feminists of all sorts on their side as well as groups like LGBT. But what they may fail to understand is that the liberals (hard left) are outnumbered.Men should nonetheless be on notice. Benghazi? That’s a LOL because main stream liberal… Read more »
Bothers me that this site always runs pro-democrat articles which makes it very biased. And it’s interesting that the many articles are reasonably challenged and have little to no response on the positive side. You’d think that GMP would wise up and realize that the readership potential is not all Democrat much less liberal.
CW, just as we will see nothing about Benghazi. In so far as the VA, I personally know 3 veterans who are waiting for specialist appointments for more then 12 months.
I don’t think it’s biased to say that the 2014 elections appear to be close and are not a foregone conclusion.
The main reason I haven’t written anything about the VA is that the allegations are still being investigated by different government agencies and the news media. It’s not clear what happened yet and people have been pointing out these sorts of problems since at least 2000, so I don’t know what to make of it yet.
Its not clear what happened except to the families of the veterans who died waiting for care. That is pretty clear. How the VA covered up those failures I suppose to some extent remains unclear, but the fact that the VA failed some veterans is crystal clear.
You may not call it biased, but I call it the hopeful thinking of a liberal and to that extent it is biased because you are hoping for the defeat of the re-emerging conservative majority. One thing pretty clear about this country it is it’s political leanings swing back and forth. During the ’80’s Reagan Conservatism reigned supreme. Then G.H.W.B. broke faith with the conservatives by breaking his no new taxes promise leaving a vacuum in politics that was filled by liberals. By passing welfare reform Clinton broke faith with liberals allowing for a return of conservatives. 9/11 and our… Read more »
I generally agree with your comments, but that last line about the Repulican party shedding “Tea Party extremists allowing or for a reemergence of the Republican conservative core” was completely off the wall. The Tea Party Extremists are the Republican conservative core. The problem with the Republican party has been the wobbly centrists like McCain , Romney , Boehner and Bush. Extremists like Palin, Rubio, Cruz actually present a strong counter argument to the Democrats failed liberal ideas. Without the “extremists” the Republican Party would be completely finished. Republican centrists constantly trying to court the approval of main stream media… Read more »
Have you seen the latest primary results? Tea Party challengers to main stream Republicans in Kentucky, Louisiana and Georgia were soundly defeated. I may have over stated the case, but the recent primary results in states where the Tea Party had it strongest influence is an indicator of something. I think you would like to believe the Tea Party has a stranglehold on the Republicans, but that is wishful thinking.
Some of the philosophies of the Tea Party are being adopted by the Republican core and to that extent it is a good thing because it is allowing Republicans to distinguish themselves from Democrats, but at the same time not alienating more centrist Democrats and Republicans. The fact is to get elected in a general election you must move toward the center. Tea Party conservatives biggest issue is government spending, this is an issue that Republicans should own and can win votes with from the right and the center. Immigration is another issue Republicans and Tea Party Conservatives can unite… Read more »
Glad to see someone “Michael Anthony” had the balls to write something about the VA. But then again he IS a veteran.
this is not a site dedicated to what most American men concern themselves about. This is a liberal, pro-feminist, pro-homosexual website dedicated to the far left agenda. What do you expect?
Then what do most American men concern themselves about, pray tell?
I can tell you what they don’t concern themselves about. Like how a gay dad responds to Florida official’s fear that standardized tests will make kids gay. Or whether or not Michael Sam is gay, what most American men, particularly St. Louis Rams fans want to know is can he play and if not why did they waste a draft pick on him.
David, I can only speak of the many men I come in contact with. When I’ve referred them to this site in that I’ve written a couple of articles, their response is not about my articles but instead “What the hack kind of site did you link up with?”
Courage, you’re spot on.
If this is a biased, pro-Democrat article, he’s not doing it very well. Two of his citations point toward Republican victories.
But not to the extent that Republicans believe or hope for. The general tenor of the article is to put liberal Democrat minds at ease that the coming Tsunami won’t be as bad as predicted. So who is it pointed toward and since calming Democrat fears is its clear goal how can you say it is not biased.
David, you said f this is a biased, pro-Democrat article, he’s not doing it very well. Two of his citations point toward Republican victories.” which in essence saying “Democrats, you’d better get your act together to WIN.”
This reminds me of Rasmussen circa October 2012.
As an aside, I wonder if we’ll read anything here about President Obama’s campaign promises about the VA?