The recent terrorist attacks in Paris may be shocking and horrible, but they are unlikely to change what happens in next year’s presidential election.
The recent terrorist attacks in Paris are certainly a major news worthy event. And with candidates for the White House calling for things like shutting down mosques and closing American borders to refugees and visitors from certain countries it easy to act like any number of pundits and declare that the Paris attacks will change the dynamics of the presidential race.
But in all honesty you really shouldn’t jump to any conclusions just yet. The reasons are pretty simple, most American voters don’t know or care enough about foreign policy for it to have a big impact on their vote a year from now. In fact historically the only big thing voters focus on when it comes to foreign affairs in punishing parties that preside over unpopular foreign wars with lots of American casualties. Meanwhile most voters will just follow partisan cues when it comes to things like who is best positioned to end the Syrian Civil War while most actual swing voters are the sort of low information voter that won’t tune into the election until Fall of next year.
As Jonathan Bernstein put it a few days ago:
What we do know is that most times foreign policy and national security have only minor effects on general elections. The big exception is when incumbent parties pay a price for unpopular and costly wars. At least, that’s what we’ve learned from experiences that are roughly similar—for example, the effects of U.S. troop deaths on presidential elections during the wars in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. Of course, something unprecedented could happen over the coming months. Then, perhaps, voters’ reactions will be different.
What is unlikely, however, is that the national security records of the Republican and Democratic nominees will make much difference in how their parties fare in the general election. Democrats may be confident that Hillary Clinton’s edge in foreign-policy experience will boost her chances if terrorism is a big concern in fall 2016. Republicans may be certain that her connection to the Obama administration will make her vulnerable. Neither of these factors is likely to affect how people vote.
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To be sure this doesn’t mean that the Paris attacks won’t have an impact on American politics. After all we know that presidents tend to at least try and keep their campaign promises. So if candidates spend the next 11 weeks between now and the Iowa Caucuses promising to do things like restrict the flow of refugees into the country or more foreign military adventures in the Middle East, we should all be paying attention, because that’s what we could see under the next president.
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You may be correct that the Paris attacks themselves won’t play a major role in the actual Presidential race. If in fact there are no more attacks of this magnitude between now and election day that is. It’s just that I can’t shake this fear that this is a sort of ‘Dry Run’ of an attack somewhere in the U.S.. After all, 9-11 was preceded by not one , but two coordinated attacks on 2 U.S. embassies along with the attack on the U.S.S. Cole , and from what I read, I.S.I.S. is the evolution from Al-Queda in Iraq and… Read more »
I should of said ‘Practice Run’ as there was nothing ‘Dry’ about the carnage in Paris.