Between stagnant employment and technological advancement, how will society adapt to the inevitable loss of human labor?
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Every technological advancement brings with it a multitude of benefits. The underlying reason for every technology ever developed, from the spear to the Snuggie, is laziness. The modern world is nothing more than humanity’s desire to make life easier by reducing the work we need to do to survive. It is this drive that has propelled us from hunter-gatherers to farmers, marching through history to the point that the majority of humanity is free to pursue the projects, passions, and ideas that allow society, and our species, to continue to explore, innovate, and evolve.
The modern world is nothing more than humanity’s desire to make life easier by reducing the work we need to do to survive.
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Naturally, every major advancement has brought with it critics and fear mongers. From the printing press to the assembly line, nearly every major technological breakthrough has been seen as a devastating loss of jobs for people in the relevant fields. In some cases the concerns are justified, though these same advancements have often made finding or creating new jobs much easier. However, this coming advancement is different.
The video above details the history and future of automation and its effect on the workforce. While robotics are currently on the verge of being cost effective, as the video states, they are also the first generation of commercially viable machines designed to replace humans in the workforce. As time goes on and they are improved and refined, robots will only become more efficient. And this is not necessarily an advancement we’ll be able to replace with new jobs.
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Pew Research recently conducted a survey of tech experts on the affect the growing boom of robotics and artificial intelligence will have on job markets. While there is a general consensus that new jobs will arise to replace those machines replace, there is overwhelming agreement that machines will replace a massive amount of labor (both blue and white collar), and that the American educational system is in no way equipped to prepare people for these anticipated new labor markets.
As time goes on and they are improved and refined, robots will only become more efficient. And this is not necessarily an advancement we’ll be able to replace with new jobs.
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Automated cash registers, which you’ve likely seen at a supermarket by now, have already begun to phase out the army of cashiers needed to work at grocery and department stores, while their counterparts are slowly making their way into fast food joints. There is even a company, Momentum Machines, developing an automated burger making machine for the express purpose of rendering fast food cooks obsolete. Between the ongoing debate over the minimum wage and undeniable shrewdness of fast food companies, is there really any question about how popular this technology will be once it’s commercially viable? This technology has even gotten attention from The Onion, who pokes its usual fun at issues people tend to care about.
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… is there really any question about how popular this technology will be once it’s commercially viable?
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The effect of rising wages for low skilled workers is already being seen in China, where at least one restaurant has begun replacing flesh and blood employees with mechanical staff members. While the waiters are reliant on fixed paths through the restaurant and the cooks require human assistance and oversight, the establishment’s popularity is undeniable, as is the benefits of mechanical staff from a purely business perspective. In this instance, each robot costs the equivalent of an employee’s annual salary to purchase, with upkeep being limited to electrical and maintenance costs – a pittance compared to annual salary, plus benefits (assuming employees would get those), sick days/holidays, worker’s comp, and even the relative loss of efficiency from tired, lazy, or employees who aren’t otherwise working at 100%.
These advancements, as well as many others, will come in to play within the next few decades. The question we have to ask is simple: what are we going to do about it?
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These advancements, as well as many others, will come in to play within the next few decades. The question we have to ask is simple: what are we going to do about it?
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I have no illusions that my day job as a janitor at a local college is not under threat from the coming automation. There is literally nothing I do that cannot be replaced by a properly equipped machine. The same technology that lets a Roomba vacuum your home can easily be applied to the machines used to mop and wax floors, which can doubtless be improved to include the brushes, brooms, scrubbers, and cleaning solutions needed to tend to walls, windows, toilets, you name it. The moment it proves more cost effective to purchase a few machines, my coworkers and I, as well as everyone in our related fields, will likely be looking for work.
That assumes, of course, that the economy attempts to function as more and more low-skilled jobs (and even those of lawyers and doctors; see video above) are phased out by machines that do these jobs cheaper and more efficiently. Yes, there will likely be new jobs created as people find ways to be productive and profitable in their spare time, but as the loss of unskilled or low-skilled labor grows, where will people find work if they lack the necessary skills to move into more specialized fields?
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… as the loss of unskilled or low-skilled labor grows, where will people find work if they lack the necessary skills to move into more specialized fields?
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If we attempt to maintain the status quo, it is incredibly likely that unemployment will skyrocket as millions of people find themselves unemployed. Some will be able to adapt, many will not. Are we, as a society, prepared for that reality? Or will this technological revolution also signal a change in our social contract, and what is seen as necessary to make sure everyone has a decent living?
Will we reform our educational programs to give everyone a chance to compete at the higher level that will doubtless be necessary, or continue to deride those who can’t afford an education as unmotivated? As jobs become harder to find, will there be serious debate about reforming our notion of welfare, perhaps going as far as to guarantee each citizen a guaranteed minimum income, or will those who cannot adapt be called lazy and be forced to starve? Are we willing to adapt at all to the coming automation, or are we perfectly content to do nothing, see what happens, and suffer the consequences?
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Photo credit: Flikr/Steve Jurvetson