AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
CNN declared it on-air. Then NBC said it was true. And now, at 11:25 pm EST ABC agrees.
Barack Obama has been re-elected!
Turns out, the polls were right.
How do you think the accuracy of this year’s polling, specifically that of Nate Silver, will affect future elections?
For up-to-the-minute updates, visit CNN’s results center.
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Silver wasn’t so much vindicated as were the polls. Silver missed 2010 because of the polls.
Focusing on polls ignores the real story. At least when it comes to presidential election years, off years still suffer lower turnout, the demography has changed. That will of course affect the polls, so there is a story in how the pros respond next time around and I suspect they’ll weight the turnout incorrectly as it will be a congressional/lower turnout year. The new question is about Obama’s coalition. Did he win because of charisma or because of policies? My gut says the former and that prognosticators will bet on the latter. Thanks to the bifurcation of the lens, both possibilities will be proven true in 2016.