How to engage positively with global warming skeptics.
Imagine you’re at a cocktail party, and you’re introduced to a guy named Dirk. Dirk calls himself a libertarian. After a few minutes of chatting, Dirk starts to suspect that you might care about the fate of the Amazon. Tipsy and irate, he starts ranting about global warming, how much he hates environmentalists, and how Al Gore is a money-grubbing hack.
Then he turns to you, purple with rage, ready to crush his martini glass in his fist. “AND I SUPPOSE YOU BELIEVE THIS CRAP ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING?” he seethes.
What do you say to such a hothead? He’s ambushed you with the topic, and now he’s screaming un-cited statistics into your face. The guy seems like an asshole—and because he keeps interrupting you, he’s clearly insulted by the very thought of counter-argument. So now what?
Here’s what I say: “Actually, I don’t think it matters whether global warming exists or not.”
Dirk calms down. Dirk takes a breath. Now he wants to talk. He pegged you as a blame-America-first liberal, and now you sound like you agree with him. His ears open, his blood pressure subsides.
Now he’s curious: Why doesn’t it matter?
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Dealing with Dirk
“Dirk” is inspired by an actual person, and this conversation basically happened. I’m glad I didn’t have a full-on fight with Dirk, because he turned out to be a decent guy: a sculptor, a great storyteller, and a volunteer for the post-Katrina relief effort. If I had fallen into the usual debate, Dirk and I would never talk again. But we have, and we agree on many different things.
But there are Dirks everywhere. I’ve met Dirk, or his wife, or his kids, at least 100 times. Dirk is a popular character in Western Pennsylvania. He’s intelligent, skilled, and a hard worker. He’s a responsible gun owner and loves quality beer. Dirk smokes marijuana by the brick and is totally in love with his wife (as he should be, because most people can’t stand him). When he’s not fuming over “dirty hippies,” Dirk can be downright cool.
The problem with Dirk is that he’s socially awkward and easily bruised. People have hurt him in the past. He’s very confident about his lifestyle—so confident, he sees no other reasonable way to live—and diversity gives him the creeps. He’s always being told how to live, what to wear, what rules to follow. Yet Dirk sees his tax-money squandered by people who seem less motivated. This is when the asshole comes out. What’s this bullshit about carbon footprints? Why should “we” bow to foreign interests? What’s this Kyoto Protocol crap, anyway?
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Newsflash: Most People Are Not Scientists
I’ve stopped arguing with Dirk about global warming for one difficult reason, a reason I am loath to admit: In truth, I can’t explain it. Sure, I accept global warming as an urgent theory, and the evidence for it seems overwhelming. But when I try to accept it as truth, I ask myself the following questions:
- What is ozone? How come the deteriorating ozone layer is responsible for trapped heat?
- Specifically, how does breaking apart a Styrofoam box affect global warming?
- Using graph paper, how would I draft a chart that demonstrates the effects of global warming? What measurements would I use? How does this “prove” that global warming exists?
- Indeed, why do I believe this data? Do I perform the research myself? Have I ever met a researcher in the field? Given my non-existent background in physics, couldn’t the Giant Spaghetti Monster be just as responsible for global warming, for all I know?
The problem is that most people can’t provide a detailed argument for (or against) global warming. The relationship between solar radiation and the atmosphere is a subject that only scientists fully appreciate. We get the basic idea, but that’s it. Most of us are too ill-equipped to argue either side. Meanwhile, global warming is a slow and invisible process. Cold weather in December doesn’t prove the Earth is healthy, nor does one Indian Summer prove environmental collapse. Even if average Americans were experts in meteorological trends, global warming is the stuff of science, and science only produces theories. Science is the humblest field there is, because scientists don’t believe in “truth.” Evolution is just a theory. Nuclear energy is just a theory. All reality, as we claim to perceive it, is just a theory.
If Dirk and I debate global warming, we’ll sound like idiots. I have a basic idea of how global warming is supposed to happen, and Dirk claims to know otherwise. But the physical properties of solar energy are far beyond our knowledge. We can’t summon the simplest facts. How does solar energy convert into heat? How quickly are ice caps melting, and how do we compare this to billions of years of temperature trends? Unless we carry around bundles of research abstracts, all our “data” are hopelessly simplistic. We’re debating research we’ve never actually read. We might as well argue about how to build the best submarine, because we know more hard facts about naval engineering than we do about climate change.
♦◊♦
Give a Hoot, Don’t Pollute
“Global warming is all beside the point,” I say to Dirk. “The problem is pollution and waste. What kind of moron is pro-waste? That’s just bad business.”
I use this all the time, because the tactic works on people of all political stripes. My environmentalist friends usually admit that they take Global Warming on faith (as I do). And conservatives usually agree that less pollution is a good thing. Both Dirk and his hippie nemeses want the same thing: clean water, fresh air, responsible companies, independence from oil, and abundant life. Even guys who hate tree-huggers aren’t averse to trees.
Week after week, I meet a new Dirk and discuss the future of the planet. Once we put aside the ethereal topic of Global Warming, we agree on concrete solutions: don’t litter, stop poisoning water, clean up toxic dumps, and foster alternative energy. Sure, Dirk would rather rely on smart CEO’s than government watchdogs, but at least we’ve agreed on the same problem, and we would both like to see it fixed.
I basically believe in global warming—the way that agnostics basically believe in a higher power—but I’m being honest with Dirk: I don’t think global warming should be the Earth’s most pressing concern. Rising temperatures are catastrophic, but they’re not our core problem; our core problem is that more than seven billion people live here, and half of them are hungry or starving. The problem is that our resources are insanely mismanaged, or else simply wasted. The problem—if there even needs to be another problem—is that we are all competing for money, energy, and power, and when I make a dollar, you lose a dollar. When my company thrives, yours goes bankrupt. When my country wins the war, yours is bombed to shit. And at any moment, some crazy tyrant could just blow up the world with nuclear weapons, in a matter of hours, just for fun. That’s the core problem.
Dirk and I have this one belief in common: If global warming exists, we humans will gradually adjust our lifestyles. It’ll be awful and unhealthy, but the Earth can adapt. Yet, until the global population plateaus and declines, our carbon footprint is no worse than the nuclear waste, eradicated species, and decimated forests that are already trashing our planet.
I consider myself an environmentalist, no matter how much Dirk scoffs. But the movement has its problems. In decades past, environmentalists had clear, pragmatic problems: DDT caused birth defects, and run-off ruined water supplies. Dumping mercury in the ocean poisoned fish, and it also poisoned the people who eat fish. But most people don’t care. Unless the disaster hurts your health or your pocketbook, most people shrug, or even get hostile. The only reason the environmental movement is popular now is because gas hit $6 a gallon. Period.
You don’t win converts by shouting at naysayers. Environmentalists need to understand their antagonists and appeal to their interests. Libertarians might love solar energy because they would never have to pay an electric bill—they could literally live off the grid. Green technology promises R&D investments (and profits) that Neo-cons can only dream of. These people probably don’t care about Venice or New Orleans getting swallowed by the sea, but if we can just convince them that recycling will help “beat terrorism”—since it was recycling that enabled us to win World War II—they might change their tune.
The more we argue for global warming, the more conservatives will hate the idea.
We will stay polarized as the actual poles keep melting.
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Image by Cherrylynx/ flickr
Media
So, let’s say we allow the bogus case that the Little Ice Age–four centuries, thereabouts–is solely the responsibility of Icelandic volcanoes. What was the “nomimal” temp beforehand and why was it warmer than now?
As for treaties, if you can’t get India and China to sign on, and you can’t, forget it.
We don’t get BBC where I live. How’s that Savile thing coming, btw? I understand we did get the BBC boss to run the NYT, so that’s something.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100194166/man-made-global-warming-even-the-ipcc-admits-the-jig-is-up/
But see Delingpole: If the linked article is too long, see James Delingpole IPCC
I always find the use of words like nominal and warmer quite funny. It was about 40 years ago that someone working at the Nuclear plant in Cumbria (Sellafield) stopped ignoring an issue in a holding pond filled with some rather nasty Nuclear Waste – you store it under water cos it basically stops radiation. The issue was patches growing of the sides of containers where no suspecting thing could possibly grow. They ended up having one very close look and a bacterial colony was found that just don’t have any issues with massive radiation doses – it was one… Read more »
No matter what emerges or results, this discussion has been an amazing learning experience for me, and I guess many others! Great contributions.
Who’s been watching BBC Videos then! P^) It’s fascinating to see the change in attitudes when people watch it. TTFN
Media. The MWP lasted a long time, and was worldwide. The Dark Ages Cold Period also lasted a long time. Not a matter of a single volcano. The 9-11 change–first I’ve heard of it–refers to one or both of two issues: Fewer contrails and the additional clouds they generate, so more solar radiation strikes the ground instead of being reflected. Second, these clouds may be the kind which trap infrared radiation. Or, just for grits and shins, both. This has been a question for some time. Keep in mind that all radiation striking the ground degrades to infrared, so any… Read more »
Oh I see it’s going to be blow by blow and 101 levels! 1) The MWP lasted a long time, and was worldwide. The Dark Ages Cold Period also lasted a long time. Not a matter of a single volcano. It’s not clear why you have made this point as it has nothing to do with me. I did make reference else where to the little ice age in the 1783 and 1784 which was and is explicitly linked to the eruption of Laki for 8 months and for which there is extensive historical record – both of event and… Read more »
Another issue to bring to the table… A colleague of mine has been investigating the spike in Lyme disease cases across the country, as well as the onslaught of fleas on our pets we have been experiencing over the past eight years. Milder winters, especially on the east coast, mean more breeding time for hematophagic (blood-sucking) insects, like fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes. Mild winters are also less lethal to these creatures and their eggs. Furthermore, winters that are less lethal to wild rodents and deer mean more early hosts for disease-spreading hematophages. Calling out the infotainment media on their crap… Read more »
In the UK and many areas of Southern Europe – Fleas are up and interbreeding has been producing what many call super fleas. It is hard in southern England to find any reduction in Flea count across the year. Lymm is also up here – main reason given is bracken is up earlier and does later – spring has been advanced by up to three weeks and fall is upto a month later. Many deciduous trees that need both reduced day length and lower temperatures to cause leaf fall had leaf coverage last year upto Christmas – that is +8… Read more »
Media. How about some detail: Seems you’ve been having unprecedentedly hard winters. Snow and cold, etc. There’s a new type of home heater which recaptures heat from the exhaust. That’s good efficiency. But last year, something like, iirc, 50,000 of them froze up because the cooled exhaust didn’t keep the water vapor from condensing and freezing. Were the things engirneered incorrectly, or were they gaited for warmer winters? But if you’re having effects from warmer years, it must be the other seasons. Any ideas? In addition, as some folks will admit, there was a Little Ice Age until the mid-nineteenth… Read more »
Actually – the winters are actually over all milder but over the last 5 years or so we have had significant weather events caused by major shifts in the jet stream – Periods when the Jet suddenly shifts 1000 miles north and we have North African air dragged in and Red Rain – 26 celcius at midnight in January some 35 degrees warmer than average – and 100% air humidity – so Think Miami … and for a week – and then back to normal. Then the jet plummets south and depending on it’s angle we either get blasted with… Read more »
Great share! Regarding the warm oceanic currents, many do not realize that the UK’s steady mildness through the year is attributed to the current phenomenon. The islands sit at the same latitude as the Hudson Bay, but are infinitely more habitable. It seems that changes from the melting polar caps is slowly becoming apparent. Looking forward to watching the documentary you linked. Thanks!
@Salvice – BBC News Coverage from 2005 – Cleaner air makes brighter skies – it’s very low key. Also Global dimming: A new aspect of climate change – G. Stanhill 2006 which even on-line allows people access to a great deal of info, even if the full document costs money. But also so very low key. Many wonder at the loss of Political Will around Kyoto, Climate Change etc and why so many governments are suddenly moving away from previous national sustainability mantras and Green Credentials being thrown to the wall – Even Green Peace and major environmental lobbiests are… Read more »
Media. Maybe you could fill us in on this happening in the UK: Big, huge, giant subsidies for new windmills. In order to fill in for the slow periods, windily speaking, big, huge, giant subsidies for gas turbine generators. Gas turbine generators are chosen because they spool up rapidly from idle to take over from no-wind times. So there won’t be any interruption in power supply and it won’t be necessary to buy it from nuclear France as Scotland did a year or two back. Gas turbine generators are clean at speed but dirty at idle. So we have huge… Read more »
Windmills silly – The dash to gas is ongoing and a big issue because we are not having to import gas as LPG by ship and also by pipeline from Russia et al! Big dangers geopolitically. Two new nuclear stations in planning progress and more to come. We have to do a France, and fracking is a great option except for the best place being under the biggest Nuclear Reprocessing plant and repository in the UK – bugger! The strategic planning needed to deal with just energy changes are being held up and holding back the necessary progress – and… Read more »
Not too long ago, NASA and its has-been boss, James Hansen, were forced to admit that 1998 wasn’t the hottest year on record. That was 1934. But, they said in a fallback, it wasn’t all that much hotter than 1998. So there’s that. And 1933 was pretty hot.
So, if this is true, and you have to force the powers that be to admit it, obviously, we haven’t had much global warming in the last three-quarters of a century.
Which is either true or it demonstrates the advantages of cherrypicking your start and end dates.
So, if this is true, and you have to force the powers that be to admit it, obviously, we haven’t had much global warming in the last three-quarters of a century. Richard – you do love making up conclusions from incomplete data – so the hottest year was 1933. And the Coldest year? When was that? Do you know in which year there was the largest shift in mean temperature? Do you know the number of years in which an increase in mean temperate has increased year on year? Factoid: a briefly stated and usually trivial fact – so 1933… Read more »
How to engage positively with global warming skeptics. Fava Beans and Chianti works with them lightly sautéed. It helps to deal with two issues – overpopulation and a reduction in hot air and the green house gases they generate. Some argue that global warming is the earth’s MOST pressing concern. – That is such a silly view, because the Earth will keep going hot or cold. Global Warming is Man’s most pressing concern, because as the geological records show when, you have massive environmental change it’s the beasties at the top of the evolutionary tree that end up extinct –… Read more »
MediaHound,
Spot on. Realistically, our population FAR outstrips the carrying capacity of the planet. We’ve managed to prop it up so far with GMO crops, chemical fertilizers, and automated farming, but those techniques are losing their efficacy.
And when global warming knocks the bottom out of that tower of food, a whole lot of people are going to come crashing down. And by crashing down I mean starve.
Dan – sometimes being single, queer, no kids and of an age where you have more years behind than in front, it does have value. I don’t have to fear climate change and it’s extent because in all likelihood I will be 6 foot under before the real chaos starts. No kids helps as I don’t have deal with that set of emotions either. It is nice when you don’t have to look at realities with fear – terribly liberating. And if you think that Fava Beans, Chaianti and Poached Septic alla mode is spot on – you should read… Read more »
LOL!!!!! Rob Pate !!!!!!
Please consume with a fine French Merlot.
Have too much Pate at the moment, so I’m shifting to Cat Food production. Even the best prepared cat will need a little help.
“Global Warming is Man’s most pressing concern, because as the geological records show when, you have massive environmental change it’s the beasties at the top of the evolutionary tree that end up extinct – unable to adapt to the new environment” The geological records show no such thing. Its the other way around. In the geological records there are huge extinction events where large numbers of species go extinct…not just the top ones. We theorize that whatever cause these changes must have been environmental because how could it have affected everything at once. But whatever those events were…they were not… Read more »
@Assman – Oh I’ve seen this argument before. You do realise that climate change is not good or bad it just is. The view of positive and or negative is very human and imposed on the subject – you get that, right? I do have to ask because humans have this inbuilt thing about making things good or bad – it seems to be evolved for survival and it can get in the way of how people look at the world and see patterns. People talk about ice ages and because they don’t like cold they see one ending as… Read more »
Rob. I note he mentioned DDT. Rachel Carson has a spot near the stove down there. Along with the True Believers. The science behind the egg shell thing was faulty. And hundreds of thousands, possibly millions died when the Anopheles mosquito reblossomed with the inevitable malaria. But they were brown people and so The Anointed didn’t notice. Also, does anybody know what the optimum temperature for the Earth is? Where’d you get it? See Mann, “1491”, about the Americas when Columbus arrived. The Amazon was not a rain forest. It was an immense garden. When the populations were wiped out… Read more »
The optimum temperature of the earth for humans is a consistant one.
This is all about style…no substance. When do we get the substance? If data, evidence and determinations can be convincing, they are – “convincing” that is. You ought to need to pull in old and provel trophies like Mercury and DDT. Even stupid doubters like me won’t fall for that weak switcheroo… Joe six-pack will though. Joe six-pack falls for the “depletion of the Rain Forest lies that claim an acre-rate that would have wiped it out in about a month according to Mrs St Pierre’s 5th Grade Class. If you can’t sell an idea, theory or claim to a… Read more »
Rob,
Would you mind telling me what you found unconvincing in the studies you’ve read on climate change? I’d love to understand your general criticisms of the field, or the problems you found with current methodology, or specific problems with specific authors. Thanks!
Note: Many people read my replies as hostile and angry. They are usually correct. In this case, please do not read ONE modicum of anger or hostility in this reply. Its purely a statement of reason and position. Thanks 😉 Dan, First, I’m not a scientist, but I’m educated enough for scientific and basic discernment. In other words, examining the stats cited, methodology(ies), financial sponsorship source-trace, identifying agendae, etc. Its really not about convincing ME though. I’m speaking more of the skeptics of the GW phenomena in general. In order for any idea/concept to be bought into by a thinking… Read more »
“I’d love to understand your general criticisms of the field, or the problems you found with current methodology, or specific problems with specific authors. Thanks!” Sure. I have a criticism of GCM models which are used extensively in climate model. My question is why exactly should we think that GCM models “work”. All numerical simulations are approximations to physical reality. In a good numerical simulation you can determine how good the approximation is and what level of error you will have. In GCM models the error is known to be 100%. The GCM models will output information that in no… Read more »
Let me give one more generic criticism…climatologist predictive skill SUCKS. Suppose I tell you I know for sure that the stock market will double in one year. Would you believe me? No way. Suppose I made this prediction and I was mostly right (it went up 2.2 times). Would you believe in my predictive ability? Probably not. Suppose I made another stock market prediction and was close. Would you believe now. I would still say no. You would need a lot of repeated successful predictions year after year before you would have good confidence in my abilities. Climatologists ask us… Read more »
Climatologists ask us to believe them about what the climate will be like in 100 years. But so far they have made zero successful 100 year predictions. A retrodiction is not a prediction…any idiot can curve fit. Interesting – but you seem to think that the complex system known as Global Climate can be reduced to highly simplistic equations such as e=mc squared. Well it can but it it’s taking some time to verify the accuracy of the equations, just as it took some 50 years for a little known patent office clerk called Einstein to a few predictions proved… Read more »
“If we care about those people, if we want to “end starvation” then we have no choice but to address global warming. If we don’t care, then we don’t’ need to address it or change the way we live. Simple”
Simple, alright. The last cold period, The Little Ice Age, and the one before that, the Dark Ages Cold Period, both resulted in failed crops, famine, starvation and disease.
Ah, but I think that has more to do with any change away from the status quo. It doesn’t really matter which direction the change occurs in.
For example, rising global temperatures have already caused profound droughts in areas of historically fertile farmland. Which results in failed crops, famine, starvation, and disease.
Any quick change at all isn’t good for humans.
Dan. Does rising global temp cause droughts? What happened in the Thirties? One would think there would be more precip in warmer times, there being more energy to evaporate water from the oceans, and more energy in the winds to move it around. Billions of tons of water locked up in glaciers aren’t much use to farmers. But, anyway, if you’re right, we’d have had droughts during the Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Warm Period and the Holocene Maximum and plenty of rain during the Little Ice Age and the Dark Ages Cold Period. Famines during the former and… Read more »
“For example, rising global temperatures have already caused profound droughts in areas of historically fertile farmland.”
It is impossible to make this type of attribution with current GCMs. Another case of scientist outright lying about what their models can do.
It is impossible to make this type of attribution with current GCMs. Another case of scientist outright lying about what their models can do. Actually – if you factor in Global Dimming as has been done on recent climate models, last 7 years, you get an historically valid sequence that shows why the Northern African Monsoons failed for ten years and lead to mass famine – Remember Live Aide 1985 – and why the Monsoons gradually returned afterwards. You seem to want simplistic models to make sense of complex subjects, so – You have cars throwing out exhaust and particles… Read more »
Ok I’m totally with you when you say, “talk to people in the language they can understand”. There’s no need to beat people over the head with our rhetoric. After all, they don’t need to agree with us, they just need to do the things we want them to do. Their reasons for doing those things is basically irrelevant. And yet, I’m going to criticize some of your rhetoric, because I think that I’m coming from mostly the same place and therefore discussing this proves worthwhile. 1. “I don’t think global warming is the earth’s most pressing concern” I’d argue… Read more »
“But the physical properties of solar energy are far beyond our knowledge. We can’t summon the simplest facts.” This argument strongly implies that democracy cannot work and you need elites to govern. I fully agree with this but I am wondering whether the author does. And of course there is always the problem of shitty elites. I guess the basic idea here is that your just supposed to trust the scientists. But eventually you will discover that you can’t trust them. They don’t have magic special powers. Then what? Uncertainty, doubt and fear I guess. “Science is the humblest field… Read more »
Ok I wanna throw the implied question back to you.
How does science actually function?
“How does science actually function?” The same as it did in grade school…you manipulate things until you get whatever you think the answer is supposed to be. You do this by throwing away data, using adhoc methods, falsifying results etc. Peer review functions as a censorship mechanism to filter out non-mainstream ideas. And who gets published, makes it to conferences and get grants is determined by a small group of fairly powerful, connected scientists. Certain ideas are verboten. You exaggerate real world application in order to get funding. Being sensationalist is a good thing. Oh and of course you get… Read more »
You wouldn’t need to be any kind of scientist to argue with Dirk. You need two things: One is a solid body of proof that the Earth is warming. Keep in mind that the Hockey Stick has been busted as BS, and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia has been busted for faking the data. CRU is one of the biggies for such info except now that they’ve been caught trying to “hide the decline”, they’re not. NASA/NOAA have been accused, likely true, of ignoring or deliberately using the urban heat island effect. So you’ll have… Read more »
I’m not sure why you think the CRU has been discredited or “busted for faking the data”. As I understand it, those allegations were investigated by the EPA, the NSF, the Department of Commerce and at least two UK-based committees independently and all of them concluded that CRU’s data was not faked. Many of the criticisms of the CRU were taken grossly out of context. The “hide the decline” comment, for example, did not refer directly to global temperatures, but instead to a problem measuring tree-rings. The Earth is warming. Mean global land-ocean temperatures have risen about 0.8°C since the… Read more »