Republican commentators express constant befuddlement over the rise of Donald Trump; maybe they shouldn’t be so surprised.
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No doubt you know that Donald Trump is the Republican frontrunner, and the outspoken Republican Senator Ted Cruz now sits in second place for the 2016 Republican nomination. We should note, Cruz is famous for attacking fellow Republicans, throwing anyone who works in DC into his well-worn “Washington Cartel” slur.
How are these two – a former liberal New York reality TV star, and a far-right, un-charming Texan polarizer – outpolling the rest of a reasonably decent field of contenders?
- Ultra Conservative and Ultra Irate Talk Radio and Television
If we have a Trump presidency, you can send your screeds first and foremost to Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, and a handful of others from the AFA (Angry Fortune Amassers) crowd. These peddlers of apocalypse have grown wealthy by building their brand around outrage.
Stir the pot enough, and you’ll eventually reap a listenership teetering on the verge of anarchy. Perhaps this what Limbaugh, Levin, Coulter and Hannity secretly want: the end of democracy, the start of populism.
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Stir the pot enough, and you’ll eventually reap a listenership teetering on the verge of anarchy. Perhaps this is what some commentators wanted: the end of democracy, the start of populism.
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But if history is any lesson, the biggest loser will be America. (Think Venezuela’s decline under Chavez, Argentina’s nose dive under Kirchner).To give someone like Donald Trump equal standing with George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, FDR, Dwight Eisenhower, JFK, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama?
In case you were wondering AFA: That would be what fundamentally changing America really looks like.
2. Inept Republican Leadership
Someone should have told Jeb Bush to stay out of the race. Because as soon as he became the face of “The Establishment,” any observant person (heck, any awake person) could have predicted total revolt.
George W. Bush left the Republican party in shambles, licking wounds from which it has still not healed. To imagine voters would be willing to overlook the familial ties was to live in Fantasy Land. Whatever Jeb’s other merits, his symbolic connection would guarantee a quick sprint in the opposite direction.
Not to mention, if your father and your brother have both been president… well, it starts to feel a wee bit too close to a dynasty, you know what I’m saying?
3. A Changing Demographic
Marriage rates have fallen; married people tend to vote Republican, single women tend to lean Democratic.
The percentage of the population identifying as white is in decline; white voters tend to lean Republican.
Attitudes about gay marriage have shifted dramatically in favor of the Democrats.
And Americans are also identifying less and less as “religiously affiliated.” Evangelical Christians are a major voting bloc for the Republican Party.
These demographic factors form a confluence of bad news for any Republican trying to win the White House. Rather than arguing coherently for conservative principles and trying to win people over, many in the Republican Party appear to be in panic mode.
Hence the tentative “acceptance” of Donald Trump as the nominee.
4. The Rise and Growth of Identity Politics
Politicians must look for large groups they can target in order to build coalitions that will (hopefully) result in a political win.
This has become more pronounced lately. For instance, the overt appeals to women from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, under the assumption that voting for the first female president would be reason enough for females to support her.
Of course, identity politics is false at its roots. No one is defined solely by gender, or ethnicity, or religious leanings, or any other one attribute. But that won’t stop politicians from manipulating potential voters to think it’s in their best interest to think of themselves only in terms of identity traits.
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Trumps has tapped into the disenfranchisement of blue collar white men, many of whom feel abandoned by the Democratic Party.
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Enter Donald Trump. He has tapped into the disenfranchisement of blue collar white men, many of whom feel abandoned by the union-supporting Democratic Party. Dems have largely ignored this demographic for the past ten years.
Trump has also used propaganda to effectively coopt many Americans who are concerned about terrorism. If you’re a “real” American, then keeping other “illegal aliens” out is not xenophobic; it’s a matter of economic and security prudence. It’s a matter of patriotism.
5. The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Polls
When Donald Trump first began campaigning, many mocked him for his constant references to poll numbers. The man didn’t open his mouth without mentioning how far ahead he was in this or that poll.
He wasn’t that far ahead, not in the beginning. But claiming that he was, and endlessly reminding people of his lead, demonstrates one of the oldest propaganda tricks in the book: Bandwagon Appeal.
“Look! All these other people like me! Obviously, I’m awesome!”
We teach middle schoolers how to recognize and combat this false argument, known amongst the teenage population as “Peer Pressure.”
Maybe it’s time for an adult refresher course…
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Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore