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This Morning:
Meteorologist and self-proclaimed climate hawk Eric Holthaus published an emergency notice you can read here. If you are in California you may want to read his notice first, now. If you have loved ones in California, please share this information with them right away so they can contact their local officials to determine if they are in an evacuation area.
This afternoon: Firehose of tropical moisture from the atmospheric river hitting Sierras. Textbook scenario for major California flooding. pic.twitter.com/Ptk0bmEN3B
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 20, 2017
Last Night:
California could face a historic flood tomorrow.
Please read and share—this storm is the real deal. My take:https://t.co/MNS0RrOiDX pic.twitter.com/rmy8wUwUFy
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 20, 2017
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Meteorologist Eric Holthaus has been tracking and sharing environmental data via his newsletter and his Twitter:
Due to exceptionally wet winter, Monday storm could bring flood impacts not seen in many years. Central Valley levees at risk.#CAwx #CAflood https://t.co/MlolfSijDI
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) February 18, 2017
Latest NWS forecast shows >12″ rain in Northern California over the next 3 days, mostly Mon + Tues.
Buckle up, going to get interesting. pic.twitter.com/Sl1OLl73RS— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
Another >12 inches (>30cm) of rain by Tuesday for some parts of northern California.
Inbound storm is the real deal. Be safe, everyone. https://t.co/NilIc4Gwsy— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
Standard Project Flood: The streamflow expected from the most severe combination of meteorological conditions—Reasonable Worst-Case Scenario https://t.co/gPr9VDgmb4
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
@EricHolthaus https://t.co/b0iwSKI3er
— Terry Morse (@terrymorse) February 19, 2017
“We’re seeing evidence of more extremes,” he says.“To ignore that would be a mistake.”
Climate context for #CAflood:https://t.co/OWRGXVkdTk— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
.@NWSSacramento: Incoming Atmospheric River has moisture content consistent with a 5-10year return period. A very rare heavy rain event.
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
.@NWSSacramento: “No significant break” in the wet pattern expected, with additional storms on Friday and next Monday possible.
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
This. https://t.co/eYjRBfmqkT
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
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Latest (12Z) high-res NAM narrowing in on an intense atmospheric river impacting SF Bay/Sierras with 10-12″ rainfall. A once-a-decade storm. pic.twitter.com/WpoG4jFnCE
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
Weather models predicting 1-in-100 to 1-in-1000 year rainfall intensity during the height of Monday’s atmospheric river event in California. https://t.co/IBmxJudMFJ
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
Depending where (and if) the slow-moving atmospheric river stalls out, California could receive a truly devastating flood event this week. https://t.co/c8LXiS41xl
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
“Present situation is very similar to those which have historically resulted in major levee failures in the Central Valley & Delta regions” https://t.co/c8LXiS41xl
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 19, 2017
Many mainstem rivers across #NorCal expected to be in flood or danger stage in the upcoming days. #CAStorm #CAFlood #cawx pic.twitter.com/pebywRwYje
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) February 19, 2017
Monday #NorCal storm starting to look impressive on satellite imagery. #AtmosphericRiver has subtropical tap originating near Hawaii. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/3qn5rjMYjT
Don’t like ads? Become a supporter and enjoy The Good Men Project ad free— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) February 20, 2017
#AtmosphericRiver forecast Mon am. PWV >30mm at landfall; few ARs for month of Feb since 1996 exceed this #CAwx #CAstorm #CAflood #NorCal pic.twitter.com/sMIBGZ3c1J
— Atmos River (@atmosriver) February 20, 2017
Atmospheric river to unleash wettest storm of the season in SF, huge snowfall in Sierras (up to 5 ft.) Major flood threat after recent rain pic.twitter.com/NegRHs0KWc
— Jon Passantino (@passantino) February 20, 2017
If you are in northern or central California, listen up. If you aren’t, call/text/tweet/snap your friends/family who are. This is big. https://t.co/ePFroVQrrS
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) February 20, 2017
Text from latest @NWSSacramento forecast discussion highlighting potential for widespread,perhaps dangerous flooding.#CAwx #CAflood #CAstorm pic.twitter.com/y5b2qiHAFp
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) February 19, 2017
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Last Week:
The Oroville Dam’s primary spillway was found to have serious erosion, which created a threat to more than 100,000 people at a lower elevation. The risk to life and property for those people and more in a wider area became urgent with the forecast of substantial rainfall in the coming week. An estimated 180 thousand people evacuated to higher ground last week.
A temporary fix to the damaged spillway reduced the imminent danger but engineers warned that a longer-term solution must be implemented. Mercury News has this summary and updates.
Meteorologists have forecast historic precipitation for the next few days and warn that weather patterns are no longer what they used to be able to predict.
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Photo credit: Getty Images/Bloomberg