The latest news in Chris Christie’s and Scott Walker’s respective scandals means they will almost certainly not get to be the Republican nominee in 2016.
This week most people in the political media are talking about the ongoing crisis in Iraq and (maybe) the World Cup. This makes a lot of sense, but it’s led the political media missing some pretty important developments about the race for the Republican nomination in 2016.
The first news in is out of Wisconsin where current Republican Governor Scott Walker is in hot water about his past political fundraising during the attempt to recall him back in 2012. The background to this story is pretty complex. Basically there was a federal investigation into the ways Walker and his staff had been raising money and channeling it into other conservative political groups. But the investigation was then put on hold by a lawsuit by other conservative groups. Now five county prosecutors have jumped into the mix and given their views of what allegedly transpired.
It’s not good. The five county prosecutors alleged that Walker was at the center of a “criminal scheme” when it came to raising and channeling money. I’m no expert on campaign finance law, and so can’t really comment on the legal issues involved here, but the allegations are pretty damning. Put simply Walker and his staff systematically broke the rules that prevent political campaigns from coordinating strategy with outside groups like PAC’s and foundations.
Meanwhile Walker has responded in the way you might expect, that is that this whole thing is motivated by partisanship on the part of his Democratic enemies and amounts to little more than a “witch hunt.”
The other big news comes from Esquire which has published new details about the ongoing investigation into New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s involvement in bridgegate. According to Scott Raab and Lisa Brennan, New Jersey’s US Attorney Paul Fishman is closing in on indicting several of Christie’s closest political allies, including his appointees to the Port Authority who were allegedly involved with shutting down those ramps on the George Washington Bridge as well as other close advisors. Raab and Brennan think that this could lead to them to agreeing to help the in the prosecution of the governor himself in exchange for immunity or leniency in possible sentencing.
In fact the possible charges are pretty daunting:
Federal charges in the bridge closures potentially include both intentional interference in interstate commerce and—in the cover-up that ensued—obstruction of justice. The use of Port Authority money, raised by issuing bonds, to pay for non-PA projects will likely result in charges of securities fraud and conspiracy to commit same…
This of course doesn’t mean that Christie or Walker are going to jail. To quote the TV show Cops, all suspect are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. And the Esquire piece just cites unnamed sources that claim these indictments are coming.
So why is this so bad for Christie’s and Walker’s presidential ambitions? Well the reason is pretty simple, the fact that they could get in hot water is enough to scare influential party actors from backing them in the first place. Remember that right now we are in the “invisible primary” part of the 2016 cycle, that means important party actors like donors, activists, elected officials, and folks in the partisan press are sizing up candidates and thinking about who to back and who not to. Hillary Clinton appears to be dominating the race on her side, but the hunt for the GOP nomination is still very much wide open. So simply put why on earth should an important donor or activist get behind someone who could be in the dock between now and 2016? Especially when there are so many other potential candidates to get behind.
Christie and Walker may or may not go to jail. But their presidential dreams? Yeah those are almost certainly done.
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Photo by Mel Evans/AP