Cuban American voters are increasingly supporting the Democratic Party.
A Pew Research survey that came out the other day had an interesting find. Simply put, Cuban Americans are no longer staunch supporters of the GOP, in fact they are now basically split between Republicans and Democrats:
Less than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago, according to 2013 survey data. Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period, according to the survey of Hispanics.
The trends that have been driving this phenomenon, younger Cuban Americans have different views on the Castro Regime than their elders for example, have been apparent for some times. But it still is pretty interesting, as recently as 2004 Cuban American voters in the Florida went for Bush with a whopping 78 percent. Since party identification is a great predictor of voting behavior it looks like the days of the GOP relying in part on the Cuban vote to win Florida are probably over.
But Hillary shouldn’t start measuring for the Oval Office drapes quite yet. Yes this is a change in an important voting group in an important state and so it matters matters, but the Democrats could still easily be swamped by an unpopular war or a well-timed recession in 2016 or beyond.
Which leads me to the main point your should take from this story. Namely that no political coalition, no matter how stable appearing it might be, lasts forever. Not too long ago the thought of the Cuba Americans going over to the party of Kennedy, Carter, and thawing relations with Havana would have seemed crazy. But here it is.
Likewise the Obama coalition or the “rising electorate” or “emerging Democratic majority” is also a transitory thing. Yes in 2008 and 2012 Obama was able to put together a wining coalition of liberal whites and minorities (a bunch of other groups), but there’s nothing to say that that coalition will stay together indefinitely. Indeed rural southern whites used to be a huge part of the Democratic coalition, hence the Donkey, not so much anymore.
In short, there’s nothing to say that today’s political coalitions will last, after all very few do.
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