Sarah Palin’s recent endorsement of Donald Trump will help him continue to dominate the news cycle, but it’s not clear it will move him any closer to winning the Republican nomination.
Just when you thought things in the 2016 presidential election cycle couldn’t get any crazier, none other than Sarah Palin came out and endorsed Donald Trump in Iowa. Personally I’m pretty skeptical that Palin’s motivations have much to do with politics at all. After all Palin resigned as governor of Alaska half way through her term so she could go and cash in on her own personal brand and she hasn’t shone much interest in public affairs since then (lucrative TV contracts are another matter of course.)
But even if “The Sage of Wasilla” is more interested in cashing in on the national profile that John McCain gave her when he picked as his VP nominee than anything else, her endorsement of Trump is still pretty big news. She is after all a national celebrity, a one time nominee for the office of Vice President, and she still commands a loyal fan base of conservative die-hard fans.
Unfortunately for Donald Trump though her endorsement still won’t help him much in the long run, and might even hurt him in the Iowa caucuses which are now less than two weeks away. Because as Jonathan Bernstein explained on Tuesday she’s exactly the type of party figure that will probably alienate important GOP party actors from Trump even more:
And although endorsements may be quite important in aggregate, the support of any single figure usually makes little difference. Endorsements bring resources, whether it’s publicity or money or volunteer hours. Palin will help with publicity for one day, but probably not much more that that.
It’s even possible, as political scientist Brendan Nyhan suggests, that Palin could push undecided party actors farther away from Trump. After all, if the nomination really does come down to Trump against Cruz, it’s going to be a tough choice for many party elites, especially those who have worked with Cruz and can’t stand him. Knowing that going with the Texas senator will at least have the benefit of annoying Palin might help get them over that hump. In any case, having Trump out on the hustings praising Palin will remind many party actors of the weakness of his attachment to the party and of how little they can trust him either as their nominee or as president.
In other words Sarah Palin is the type of Republican politician than GOP party actors want to avoid at all costs when it comes to the decision about who to nominate for the White House. Parties want to nominate someone who can win and who can be trusted to carry out the party’s wishes once they get in the White House. The evidence when it comes to Palin is the opposite, she probably hurt John McCain significantly in the 2008 race and proudly states in her own books that she’ll never let party insiders tell her what to do.
So yes, Palin’s endorsement is helpful for Trump when it comes to dominating media coverage for yet another news cycle, but when it comes to consolidating party support she’s absolute poison. Since the evidence is pretty strong that parties still control presidential nominations, Palin is just making things harder for Trump.
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Photo by J. Scott Applewhite/AP