It’s probably not a secret that the birth rate is trending downwards in North America. In the U.S., it has been dropping every year since around 2014 (with the exception of 2021 when there was an uptick in births.) If you look at a more historical set of birth rate data, you can see that in 1950, there were about 24 births per 1,000 people. The current rate is about 12 births per 1,000 people, a 100% drop from the previous figure.
The U.N. projections for birth rates up until 2100 look suspiciously stable (perhaps these World Population Prospects will explain the rationale better.) But the overall trend is down. Since 2007, the country’s birth rate has dropped 20%.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/birth-rate
But why are people having fewer or no children?
There are many theories as to why the birth rates are going down, without one solid answer. Birth rates were knocked off track during The Great Recession, but rates almost always track upwards when the economy recovers.
According to Econofact.org, fewer teens and younger women are having children, many opting to not have any later in life due to personal choice or lack of affordability. (Or, perhaps people just don’t want to introduce children into our hellscape of pandemics, wars, and climate disasters.)
I can say from experience that raising just one child is a major responsibility that takes time, energy, patience, and a good amount of money — so I don’t blame people for wanting to stay childless.
What’s interesting is that the downward birth rates seems to be shared across the Caucasian, Black, and Hispanic populations, and education also doesn’t seem to play a big factor.
But one thing is for sure: “A sustained decline in the birth rate would have important social and economic consequences.”
It doesn’t take an economics major to figure out that if there are less people being born, eventually there will be less people to do jobs, less people to buy things, and perhaps most importantly to governments, fewer people to pay taxes.
In Canada, we get rewarded for having kids through the Canada Child Benefit. How much? Currently, the monthly benefit maxes out at $6,833 per year per kid aged 5 and under, and $5,765 per year for dependents aged 6 to 17. Canada’s federal government has also smartly invested in day care subsidies to allow more potential parents to afford child care in the coming years.
To the credit of the U.S., it appears it also paid households a fair amount per month to support children during the height of the pandemic. But it seems the child tax benefit has since been reduced to its previous allotment, with no advance monthly checks. Correct if I’m wrong, but it looks like the U.S. is not looking ahead very well on this one.
The crumbling institution of marriage is a factor
At the same time, there’s another factor at play that inevitably will affect birth rates. Namely, marriage rates. Marriage has long dictated when many Americans (and Canadians) decide to have kids.
However, as I pointed out in my previously published predictions for the future, U.S. marriage rates hit a low in 2018. The marriage rate was double that in 1929. We might see an uptick in 2022 as people tie the knot after postponing weddings for the pandemic. But after that, I see it going down even more, and divorce rates rising.
Since marriage is rooted in religion, participation in the church is an important factor for people to wed. However, younger people today are not connecting with religion in the same way previous generations did, especially on sensitive topics including abortion. At the same time, social attitudes toward monogamy are shifting towards polyamory.
The bottom line is that this downward trend in birth rates will likely continue for the foreseeable future, which is bad news for most countries. The sustainable future of a nation — and having a functioning workforce and military — depends heavily on new generations.
Child tax benefits are a government investment that pays off
It may seem like it’s a heavy financial burden on governments to pay families to have kids, but it makes perfect sense. A report says the average Canadian pays 42.5% of their income in taxes. This includes taxes from each level of government, as well as sales and property taxes. However, the amount of taxes one person can be expected to pay out over their lifetime will dwarf the amount given to parents in child tax benefits.
While households in Canada will get a maximum of about $98,000 in benefits during their child’s eligibility period (based on current numbers), the average household bringing in $80,000 or so pays $35,000 in taxes in one year. Since only one parent in each family is eligible to receive the child benefit, the government could make its child tax payouts back in just a few years (remembering that not all taxes go to the federal government.) That’s a pretty good return on investment if you ask me.
More countries will (need to) pay for kids
Other countries that are already bribing people to make kids (according to Wikipedia) include Australia, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, South Korea, and several countries in Europe.
It will only be a matter of time before almost every country sees the benefit of paying child benefits.
Watch closely as both the U.S. and Canada step up their incentives for having children (and achieving married status.) Both almost all countries really have no choice but to try and entice an increasingly reluctant population to procreate, and in the world’s current climate (literally), it’s not going to come cheap.
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This post was previously published on medium.com.
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You may also like these posts on The Good Men Project:
 White Fragility: Talking to White People About Racism |
 Escape the “Act Like a Man” Box |
 The Lack of Gentle Platonic Touch in Men’s Lives is a Killer |
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Photo credit: Picsea on Unsplash
