After reading Michael Moore’s article 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win I was left with a hefty lump of “oh shit” in the pit of my stomach. His points were accurate, and his reasoning is solid. I was sitting looking at a stone cold reminder that this could really happen. Trump could be the next President.
He’s right, just believing that it won’t happen, doesn’t mean we aren’t going to be watching Trump take the oath of office. A belief that America will wake up and do the right thing, or at least we won’t do the absolute wrong thing, is no longer something we can lean on. Just because so many of us find him reprehensible, disgusting, and borderline evil, the reality is there is a significant number who think he’s some sort of savior.
Truthfully there aren’t any arguments or reasons that will sway a Trump supporter. That is sole because there isn’t a substantial reason that anyone is voting for him other than emotion. That is the toughest argument to try and battle. You can’t reason with emotion; logic doesn’t permeate it, and facts don’t sway it.
Trump didn’t win the primaries due to the fact he was the best of the 17 candidates. He won because he was one of the 17 candidates. The diluted field played into his hands, and the nomination fell in his lap. Most Republican voters still don’t understand how he won. Like it or not there were several very qualified candidates. Unfortunately, there were too many. They were all drowned out by each other, unable to grab solid footing, and eventually, the carnival side show that is Trump took the spotlight from all of them. The GOP didn’t have an anti-trump candidate; they had 16, all vying for the #NeverTrump vote. Then some of the early dropouts became boot lickers and helped prop this sham of a candidate up enough to help him weather the remainder of the primary campaign.
So why won’t any of that happen in November?
Here are my five reasons Trump Won’t Win.
1. Midwest Math– While Michigan did turn out more Republican voters than Democratic in the primary, 60% of those Republicans voted for a candidate other than Trump. (25% Cruz, 25% Kasich and 10% Rubio.) Had Trump’s message been so attractive to Michigan voters he would have carried a far greater percentage in the primary. In Ohio Kasich won almost half of the vote total in the primary. Kasich is a popular governor of one of the most important electoral states on the map. The same governor who didn’t attend the RNC that was held in his state. The Trump campaign has continually insulted Kasich while at the same time trying to garner his support, that type of politics isn’t playing well in Ohio. Hillary will carry those states and others in the Midwest, Trump’s inability to mend fences will be his ultimate downfall.
2. The Last Stand of The Angry White Voter– To Moore’s point, this has been a big reason Trump surged to the nomination. However, their last stand failed miserably in 2008 and again in 2012. The worst thing that could happen to this voting block already happened; Barack Obama, twice! Trump’s base supporters of angry white people certainly didn’t vote for Obama in either previous election, and he won both campaigns handily. Also, Trump has alienated some of the women in that same demographic. If Obama, the biggest villain, and threat to the security of the angry white man couldn’t motivate more of them to the polls, then neither will the anti-villain in Trump.
3. The Hillary Problem– The easy answer is that he is no longer running against 16 other candidates, he’s running against one. A very smart one, and one that shouldn’t be so easily underestimated. The Trump campaign now has to do something it is unfamiliar with; actually campaign on facts. From today forward to win moderates and undecideds, they will have to present, actually plans, policy and ideas none of which have happened to this point.
4. The Depressed Sanders Voters– Moore is right that Sanders voters are depressed and maybe even disenfranchised. With many either voting third-party or staying home. What he is not taking into account is that the same type of exodus has and continues to happen in the GOP. Ron/Rand Paul libertarian-leaning Republicans have given up on the GOP long before now. Some Bernie supporters will vote for a third-party candidate, but almost all Paul supporters will vote for Gary Johnson. The fact is this, Hillary’s pick of Tim Kaine was not to sway Bernie fans, they aren’t her problem at this point, they were never going to vote for Trump. The moderate, undecided voters who are terrified of Donald Trump and hesitant of her are who she is going after with this VP pick.
5. The Jesse Ventura Effect– Yes there will be many who vote for Trump just to “shake things up” yet most of those people have already done that. That group isn’t likely to grow very much in the general election. The “mischevious and rebellious vote” will now go third-party, because that is the ultimate “screw you” to established political norms. Jesse Ventura at least had some ideas and actual plans during his campaign. Also, that 1998 election was also skewed with eight candidates on the ticket with around 65% voting for someone other than Ventura.
The “shake up” vote has happened, the sideshow has now been seen by everyone. There is no substance to it, and the American voters see that. The big percentages that didn’t vote for Trump in the primaries will continue not voting for him in November. We certainly can’t go to sleep at the wheel and coast into January, but it is not the time to panic.
Will the Trump supporters suddenly wake up and do the right thing? Nope. I do believe though that those who haven’t crossed over into the abyss will continue to avoid it.
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