It won’t ever happen, but Max Ornstein thinks the United States needs to start qualifying for the World Cup through South America.
In America, we often judge success by asking, “What have you done for me lately?” This leads the people and groups we’re judging to make quick fixes and then point at small, hollow, short-term, small-scale successes to validate themselves. They’re “mirage successes.” The problem with them is that anything that sacrifices the future for short-term success almost never works out, often leaving you in a worse position than before you made it. In sports, teams that avoid mirage success in pursuit of long term goals—the San Antonio Spurs, New England Patriots, and FC Barcelona being the first three that come to mind—are some of the most consistently successful teams in their respective sports. I can’t stand mirage success, and I’m generally ambivalent-at-best about teams that are guilty of chasing it. After watching the Gold Cup, I think the U.S. Men’s National Team has been damaged by mirage success, but I’m not sure it’s their fault.
The U.S. and Mexico are two big fish in the small pond that is North American soccer. Because of this, the U.S. plays less than a handful of truly meaningful games between every World Cup. This number would’ve doubled if they’d beaten Mexico in the Gold Cup—a better name might be the U.S. vs. Mexico Cup—and earned a spot in the 2013 Confederations Cup. Because we play so few games, each one takes on an inflated sense of significance that makes it harder for our team to obtain an honest measure of itself.
In CONCACAF, the United States can win games without truly fixing its problems. This hurts us against quality teams (see: Mexico, last Sunday), and although we can play to the level of some of the best teams in the World once we get to a major international tournament (see: the World Cup, the Confederations Cup), we always seem to be doomed by mistakes we shouldn’t be making. I think these mistakes, like falling asleep on defense against Ghana last World Cup or giving back leads to Brazil and Mexico, come from a lack of consistent competition. Let’s be honest, if a few more balls went our way in the Gold Cup Final, maybe we tie it 4-4, but if a few more went Mexico’s way, they could have easily hung six or eight on us.
Let me preface what I’m about to suggest with the reality that it’s totally unrealistic, despite the possibly massive long-term benefits. I want the United States and Mexico (if they want to tag along), to take a page out of an ambitious NCAA program’s book (Louisville/Marquette/Cincinnati to the Big East in ‘05 or Nebraska to the Big-10 in ‘10) and jump ship to a conference with a superior level of play. I want the U.S. to join CONMEBOL, the South American Football Federation.
♦◊♦
Yes, it would be a high-risk, high-reward move. If we joined CONMEBOL, there would undoubtedly be growing pains from leaving a small pond to a much bigger one where we can no longer pump ourselves up by beating minnows. Even if we took a World Cup qualifying spot or two (if Mexico makes the jump as well) with us from CONCACAF to CONMEBOL, there’s a significant chance that the USA would miss a World Cup or two down the line. That’s number one on the list of reasons it will never happen: for advertisers, it’s more important for the US and Mexico to get to the World Cup than it is for us to have a realistic shot at winning it.
Since I don’t sell soccer cleats, beer, or insurance, I think winning a World Cup should be our one and only long term goal. If we have to miss a World Cup on the way, so be it. We’ve made tremendous strides since 1998—where we finished dead last in the World Cup—and it’s great that we can upset our way to the finals of the Confederations Cup, or be pretty confident that—barring a Group of Death scenario—we’ve got a good shot at the knockout rounds in a World Cup, but that’s not enough for me.
If the U.S. was in CONMEBOL, we’d trade the punch line that is the Gold Cup for the tooth-and-nail competitive Copa America. As a bonus, the best teams in the MLS would compete in the always insanely entertaining Copa Libertadores—the Champions League of South America. Instead of World Cup walkover qualifiers against Jamaica and Cuba, the Men’s National Team would find itself, at every age level, in qualifiers and tournaments against teams like Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Ecuador, Mexico (if they came with), and Bolivia (where they’d get experience playing at altitude). Since the U.S. would have to earn their qualification to the World Cup, going through a gauntlet to do it, all of those matches would have a hyper-competitive edge. The US, especially its youth squads, would get a lot more “reps” playing soccer in a pressure-cooker environment at the highest level, which is something CONCACAF consistently lacks and is hurting us internationally.
Is there any downside to long rivalries with Brazil and Argentina? Worst case: Leo Messi, Sergio Aguero, Alexandre Pato, and Neymar play meaningful games on US soil on a regular basis, and the U.S. becomes a battle-tested underdog against superior talent. In my opinion, that’s preferable to the limbo/mediocrity/flux state we’re in now. Best case: a sort of continuous reverse Dream Team effect happens. The Dream Team went to the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 and ushered in a worldwide basketball boom, except this time we’d be Spain. Twenty years after those Olympics, Spain is the second best basketball country in the world.
The U.S. moving to CONMEBOL will not happen for plenty of reasons—administrative, competitive, financial, and other—but the idea of making our team more comfortable under the stress of big games in hostile environments, weeding out the guys who can’t hack it, and spotlighting the ones who rise to the occasion aren’t among them. If we ever do want to win a World Cup, we need to know who shrinks in the biggest moments and who savors them. If we join CONMEBOL, we’ll find out.
—Photo Flickr/braveheartsports