There is a recent [March 17, 2026] analysis on Reuters, How does the Iran war affect fertiliser supplies, prices and food security?, stating that, “Fertiliser production is energy-intensive, relying heavily on natural gas as a feedstock, with energy making up as much as 70% of production costs.”
“As a result, much of the world’s fertiliser is made in the Middle East, with one-third of global trade in it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route along Iran’s coast that has largely been shut since the conflict began.”
“Some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output.”
“In some countries, fertilisers account for up to 50% of the cost of grain production, and the UN’s food agency, opens new tab has warned that many low income countries were already suffering from food insecurity prior to the war.”
“The most important fertilisers near term are nitrogen-based products like urea because, by and large, if a farmer doesn’t apply them for one season, yields will likely be hit. This is less so the case with other key products, like those based on phosphate and potassium.”
“The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertiliser exports including urea in order to ensure domestic supplies.”
“Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40% to just above $700 per metric ton last Friday from just under $500 before the war, according to Argus.”
“In the U.S., fertiliser prices have surged as much as 32% since the conflict began.”
“Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.”
Agricultural Necessities
There are some basic necessities for agriculture. They include fertilizers, land, storage, pesticides, transportation to market, seeds, irrigation and farm machinery.
Many of these may decide retail food prices, in a part or in all of the country. Some of these are easier in some parts of a country or in some countries, more than in others.
Countries and their regions often have a number of staple foods. So, subsidies for two or more necessities for the crops of some staple food may determine how cheap or available that food would be.
Simply, if food will be cheap or mostly available, it is possible to seek pivotal agricultural necessities for the crop, then subsidize them to ensure it is affordable [no matter the income of a citizen] or available [no matter the disruption: COVID, War in Ukraine, War in Iran.]
The question then is that if there would be subsidies, for food security, how can it be generated within a nation, sustainably, withstanding budget cuts, interest rates, currency volatility, trade deficits, and so forth?
Food Security Insurance
Most people in a country can buy an insurance policy, with ranking premiums, to qualify to procure cheap [staple] foods, at retail.
To ensure that more people purchase it — to raise enough income to cover for what it will take to subsidize a necessity or two — people who buy certain premiums will be told they can win food prices first.
This means the feature of the insurance is not just to buy cheaper food later, but to win some food items initially [for free]. This freebie, which could apply to 15 – 20% of those in a premium cohort, may stoke a lot of buys, for a lot of revenue to meet expenditure for some agricultural necessities. Wins within cohorts can be rotated, to ensure it goes around.
So, while the insurance is expected to be affordable enough, there will be ranks within it, so that people who buy more premiums on their policy not only qualify to buy multiple food items, really cheap, but they also can win early enough.
Most of the revenue can be diverted to the agriculture necessities, such that it is possible to have bulk purchases for necessities so there would be less repetitions, in orders, so to speak.
For example, if irrigation is a problem somewhere, it is possible to solve it with underground water. If transport to market is the problem, it is possible to solve it by pooling some transport going in the same direction. If fertilizer is the problem, it is possible to order from multiple destinations, source some constituent materials as well as find ways to maximize some quantities for better harvest and so forth.
This food security insurance can be underscored by a coalition, stoking the agriculture industry as well as to result in cheaper food, so that in the event of disruptions, it might take longer to have food prices of some crops spike, ensuring extents of stability in the market.
This food security insurance can be structured extensively, within a month, say, before April 30, 2026. Then pilots can be explored in some nations or regions of those nations, with metrics on how to select crops, necessities, deliveries for wins, grow revenue against inflation, ensure the farming is sustainable and that it provides large-scale employment.
It will be useful in the situation now for the war in Iran and anything else that may be ahead.
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