The “worst-case reality” about the COVID-19 Coronavirus is that it could kill more than half a million people around the globe and infect 96 million, according to new projections outlined in a recent article by the U.K.’s Independent newspaper.Â
While this is worse than the figures most media let go of itself, it is not as bad as some government and health authorities are implying.
A quarantine of 14 days is the latest discussion. That was different from the standard procedure in other countries where visitors from China or any affected country are quarantined in individual facilities within hospitals.
The reason for such action is to closely monitor and limit the spread of the virus in case any of those in quarantine show signs of infection.
Undoubtedly, the coronavirus began as an epidemic in Wuhan, China, but it quickly became a pandemic that caused serious global concerns, especially due to the lack of an effective antidote.
The global spread, therefore, means that anyone, be it Britain, United States, Canada, Belgium, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Nigeria, and South Africa, could be infected. The list will keep growing bigger and because of the shifting global economy.
On the other hand, because of a lack of sufficient information on coronavirus, individuals some countries took it upon themselves to harass the Chinese community and its citizens.
Allowing xenophobia to take root is not in the best interest of any country.
We have, over time, see. the harmful effects of xenophobia in many countries though the circumstances are different. Nevertheless, it is incumbent upon the governments to carry out public awareness campaigns aimed at enlightening the public about Coronavirus.
Despite the stigmatization and racism against the Chinese, as of Mar. 11, 2020, the World Health Organization has registered 119,389 coronavirus cases, of which 4,300 have died in 120 countries. The numbers are sticking up every minute and every hour.
So far, many countries, including even those with well-established health systems, such as Canada and the United States, have encountered a problem while performing proper testing.
Moreover, to date, most of the methods have focused on controlling people who travel to the affected countries, not nationwide citizens.
As of Mar. 11, there were more than 100 cases of COVID-19 in Canada, according to Health Canada, and one death.
Also, Air Canada has suspended flights to and from Italy over coronavirus concerns as will.
This means that in many places, health authorities are only collecting a subset of the sick and possibly the most serious cases, as about 80 percent of people with COVID-19 suffer from a mild illness.
Remember, the most infected are usually those that appear in doctor’s offices and hospitals, while there may be thousands of other people with the virus who never show symptoms or don’t bother to see a doctor. Therefore, the infection rate can often look much worse in the first few days of an outbreak.
Some countries that have performed more general tests appear to show relatively fewer deaths in the combination of cases. In South Korea, for example, where thousands of people are examined every day, they have discovered more than 7,755 people with the virus. 61 of them died as of March 11.
If we use the WHO method of calculating the CFR and do not take into account the potential problem of underestimating the number of mild cases, the rough estimate of the death is around one percent.
In China, the number of reported deaths is declining rapidly, indicating that they are included. If there were tens of thousands of “mild” cases that were not clinically recognized, the spread would continue and, in turn, would widen the death curve.
Since it hasn’t leaned back yet, the answer appears to be no change at all. It makes no sense to believe that a large number of smaller cases will not be recognized.
Influenza thrives in cold and dry conditions, which is why winter is flu season for much of the northern hemisphere. Behavioral differences in winter can also have an effect. Nelson Michael, a leading US military medical researcher, said of the novel coronavirus last week: it may behave like the flu and give us “less trouble as the weather warms up,” but, he cautioned, it could come back when the weather gets cold again.
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