If Hillary Clinton wins next year, we could see a more moderate GOP emerge.
Jonathan Chait made a great point the other day, if the Republicans win control of the government next year it’s pretty clear what the next GOP president will try and do. Namely they will try and pass some form of the Ryan budget that promises low taxes for the rich and huge cuts in spending domestic spending, especially for the poor.
In other words if the Republicans win, the party will probably stay exactly as it has been for a while now.
But what happens if the Republicans lose? While nothing is every 100 percent certain in politics there is a good argument, made recently by Slate’s Jamelle Bouie, that losing three presidential elections in a row could have a pretty moderating affect on the Republican Party. As Bouie points out similar things have happened in American politics in the past:
The moderate, more internationalist Republican Party that emerged out of five terms of Democratic leadership and New Deal economic policy was markedly different than the conservative one that governed through the 1920s, while the Democratic Party took a right turn after losing to Reagan and George H.W. Bush in three consecutive contests.
Could a similar dynamic take hold if Hillary wins next year? Well it’s certainly possible; for one thing politicians and parties tend to “learn” lessons from election defeats regardless of if those lessons are right or not. Hence Bill Clinton decided it was necessary to endorse “get tough on crime” policies during his 1992 run for the White House. While George W. Bush tired to break with the hardline conservative image of the Republican Congresses of the 90’s by embracing the idea of “compassionate conservatism.”
Likewise interest groups may push for changes in the party they are aligned with if they are shut out of power for a long time. What the point of backing a party for transactional reasons if that party can’t win after all?
Finally there are strong incentives for political professionals and think tanks to push for changes during times in the political wilderness, if only because they want to be put in positions of power and authority.
It’s hard to tell what would happen in Hillary wins next year, but the institutional incentives and historical evidence we have say there could be a good chance the Republican Party would moderate itself. But it’s far from certain, after all we’ve heard talk about “the fever breaking” before.
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Yes and no. A defeat in 2016 and a defeat in 2018 will end the Republican Party’s current platform. The Democrats have to show that they can win an off year election. Then the Republicans will have a choice. They can move more liberal or they can cease being a national party. It becomes really interesting if Democrats gain an over whelming majority because then you see in-fighting among the Democrats. Wonder how Democrats deal with their own Tea Party fringe then.
They can move more liberal or they can cease being a national party. Im not sure I want to see that happen. Competition can bring out the worst and the best. If the Democrats became the one national party I think they would get full of themselves thinking that with the Republicans vanquished they have no one to challenge them. But I do think we would see the infighting you speak of. All the different factions of the Democrats would see a chance to become the dominant force of the one national party and would be willing to do just… Read more »
with any luck another defeat will break the republicans back and end that… only for the 1% backward thinking political party