The decline in the number of self-identified Republicans who believe in evolution only reflects the change in those who identify as Republican.
As of late, a number of people have highlighted the recent Pew poll results that show a decline in the percentage of self-identified Republicans who believe in evolution. Paul Krugman has claimed it’s all about political tribalism, while David Graham has pointed to the mental phenomenon of “motivated reasoning” as a possible reason.
These are interesting theories but I think Kevin Drum was right to point out that this probably just reflects the fact that fewer people are identifying as Republicans, and that more are identifying as independents:
“…it goes a long way toward explaining that Pew survey last week, which found that belief in evolution had plummeted from 54 percent to 43 percent among Republicans over the past four years. If you dig into the details of that poll, the decline is actually a little more moderate than it seems, and it’s probably explained mostly by the fact that so many moderate Republicans have left the party. When you remove a big chunk of people who believe in evolution, the group that’s left will have a higher percentage of deniers even though no one’s beliefs have actually changed.”
That’s probably it, but it’s important to remember that these changes don’t mean much for election outcomes. Even though more people identify as independents we still have a highly-partisan and closely-divided electorate. People may be telling pollsters that they are now independent, but as political scientist John Sides pointed out recently, that doesn’t mean their voting behavior has changed.
In short, people who identify as Republicans are more conservative than in the past, hence the change in views over evolution, but the overall shape of American political opinion hasn’t really changed at all.
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True. I should have qualified it with “complex with ethical and moral considerations”. Below is a caption from the study: “There also are sizable differences by party affiliation in beliefs about evolution, and the gap between Republicans and Democrats has grown. In 2009, 54% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats said humans have evolved over time, a difference of 10 percentage points. Today, 43% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats say humans have evolved, a 24-point gap. Differences in the racial and ethnic composition of Democrats and Republicans or differences in their levels of religious commitment do not wholly explain… Read more »
It may have to do with the complexity of the topic and that people tend to take on the affiliation of the broader group when complexity is high, because of the inherent cost of working through your own educated position. I would expect to see similar trends for climate change, GMO foods, etc
Maybe, but there seems something unique about opposition to evolution as opposed to other scientific principles. I mean it’s not like the laws of thermodynamics are controversial and people “don’t believe in them.” Most people just don’t know about them or don’t care, but the implications of the eventual heat death of the universe could be seen as “anti-religious” or whatever.