Is there a decision you’re pondering right now?
As someone whose youth is littered with the remains of some pretty bad decisions, like dating the wrong guy, choosing the wrong job, and even wearing a very wrong outfit to a crucial meeting in Los Angeles, I’ve learned the hard way.
As they don’t teach you this in school, I decided to do my own research project so I can make choices that more consistently lead to the outcomes I want.
In Annie Duke’s book, Thinking in Bets, she writes about how to make smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts, which pretty much sums up almost every important decision we make in life.
Duke was a professional poker player before she decided to study the psychology of decision-making at the University of Pennsylvania.
She makes a crucial distinction about how life is like poker, not chess.
I’ve always thought decisions were like chess. Think ahead, my mother would tell me. Take a look at the big picture, others have said. Both pieces of standard advice sound like rules of thumb for chess.
But chess is a transparent system. You know where all the pieces are and how they move. You don’t know what you’re opponent will do, but you know everything else.
In poker, there is tremendous uncertainty. You don’t know what cards your opponent has. You don’t know what your next card will be or what your opponent’s next card will be.
It’s a lot like work. What’s your boss thinking? Or dating, too. What’s that person thinking or doing? I’ve often wondered, should I speak up at a meeting or send a very opinionated email?
With life, you can’t fully know what’s going on right now or accurately predict what will happen next regarding many of life’s biggest and most important decisions.
When you buy a house, will it be worth more in five years? When you take a job, will it be as good as it sounds? When you marry your high school sweetheart, will they be the same person next year as they are right now?
Who knows?!
With this uncertainty in mind, I’ve learned that there is something you can do that is better than spending all your money on psychics to have a better chance of having the outcomes you want.
The Wrong Question
When making a decision, you are usually predicting whether or not a choice will make you happy.
What if trying to predict your happiness is the wrong question?
As someone who has worked in the television business for many years, I was pretty light on my feet. When a new show was starting up production, and I got a call about a new job, I would always take the interview.
I always looked for a spark to guide me, but the reality of the job often didn’t live up to what I was told and felt.
Another big life question that comes with a lot of uncertainty is the question of whom to marry.
- Are you asking yourself if this person will make you happy for the rest of your life?
Bad question. That’s an impossible expectation to make of any person.
2. Are you asking if this person will continue to love you the way they do now?
Bad question. If there’s one constant, it’s that people will always change. (Unless you don’t want them to.)
The Right Question
I think the best question is this — Is this situation or person something/someone that you want to explore an unknown and mysterious future with?
If we’re talking about a relationship, can this person handle change because change is guaranteed? Are they kind because there will be times when you’re not at your best and will appreciate some kindness?
If you’re considering a new job, are you willing to step into the unknown with this group of people, knowing that the experience itself will be surprising and most likely nothing like what you imagine it will be, instead of asking yourself if it will make you happy?
If you can answer yes to this question, at least you know that you will go in with open eyes and get what you expect — a transformational experience where you explore a mysterious future.
Understanding Your Decision-Making Style
It’s also important to understand your decision-making style. Do you typically err on the side of being too impulsive or too careful?
Management consultant Peter Drucker had some great advice on this topic.
He shared that he kept a decision-making notebook. Every time he had the decision to make, he wrote it down. He also wrote down what he predicted would happen. Then, when the decision had its outcome, he wrote down how it worked out.
He said it took a few years for the book to become valuable because it took that long to get enough data to see the patterns in his good and bad decisions.
Keep track of your decisions in a notebook for at least a few years. Document how your choices turn out, and you’ll start to see your predictable mistakes. Then, over the years, your decision-making abilities will undoubtedly improve.
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Previously Published on Medium
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