Will Donald Trump Be the GOP Nominee Again?

Even if he is convicted of some crimes and is out on bail on appeal, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024. None of the Republicans who took the stage last night to debate real issues have a chance against him.

Believe me, I know; I am from Washington D.C. and the electoral strength of populist politicians is always strong. Remember the late, great Marion Barry, an actual politician who believed in public service? He was Mayor of Washington D.C. and became a political superstar here in Washington D.C. He rode that populist label for over 25 years and never lost his appeal until the end of his life. And so it is that Donald Trump will also try to ride the wave, for as long as he is able, especially if the criminal justice system does not stop him.

Mayor For Life

Marion Barry was so popular in Washington D.C., during his nearly 50 years of service that he was nicknamed “mayor for life.” Barry, unlike Trump, deserved the accolades. He had served as Chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) during the Civil Rights Movement. He had risked death during that long struggle becoming a confidante of Dr. King and many other big players in the movement.

After the civil rights period and its success, Barry came to Washington D.C. with other members of SNCC to fight for the rights of residents of Washington D.C. for their basic rights as American citizens. D.C., aka “Chocolate City,” could not vote for President, had no congressional representation, and had no control over its local affairs. Enter SNCC, Marion Barry, and many others to fight the good fight.

Barry formed a grassroots organization called “Pride Inc.” It was an organization devoted to finding work for local people, mostly African Americans, locked out of the system. Barry rose quickly and also demanded home rule and equal justice for the majority African American city. He served on the city’s first elected school board and then on the city council after partial home rule was obtained after years of struggle. In 1978, Marion Barry was elected mayor of Washington D.C. and took office in 1979. He was suddenly a political superstar in the city. The people, the ordinary citizens, the working class, loved Marion Barry. They would never waver; he spoke up for them.

Barry would be successful in steering the city after home rule. He would serve two terms, had some success, and though he was urged not to run for a third term, Barry, addicted to the people’s adulation, was re-elected for a third term in 1987. Yet, by this point, his time was fading. The U.S. Department of Justice was also working tirelessly to bring Barry down with constant investigations (DOJ, it has been rumored, spent $40 million investigating Barry).

Eventually, Barry was caught in a sting operation orchestrated by those who hated him over at DOJ. Using an ex-mistress, Barry was lured to a downtown hotel to smoke crack rock cocaine. The F.B.I. got it all on videotape, and Barry was finally behind the eight-ball (no pun intended). He would leave office after the end of that third term, serve a six-month jail sentence (he beat all the charges except one), and have several stays in substance abuse rehabilitation centers trying to address his issues.

But Marion Barry, hero of the people, despite it all, was not done.

Man of the People

Marion Barry returned to the political stage and in 1995 to run for mayor of Washington, D.C. He still had a nostalgic and mental hold on many locals who had been riding with him since 1966. The locals also wanted to send a statement to the Department of Justice and the F.B.I.: you don’t choose our leaders, we do. This was the revenge election. No one at DOJ wanted to see Barry back in office, but here he was, running again.

Marion Barry won that election in 1995. He was mayor of the city again. Not long after, the federal government swooped in, installed a Financial Control Board over the poorly managed, nearly bankrupt city, stripped Barry of all of his power, and Washington D.C., as an independent Black city in America, was no more. Barry would finish his term with no power and would not run for mayor again. It wasn’t all his fault, but he was the face of it all.

What does this have to do with Trump?

First, Donald Trump is not in Marion Barry’s league as a human being and public servant/politician. Barry spent his life actually trying to help the working class, the homeless, and the poor of Washington, D.C.; Donald Trump mostly has only helped himself at the expense of anyone.

But the two men are similar in the loyalty of their hardcore supporters. Trump’s MAGA crew have not wavered. They believe the election of 2020 was stolen, and they want to get Trump, their hero, back in office. This is how many African American voters felt in 1995.

Barry became a bad manager of city affairs and should have eased out of politics in 1987 but he didn’t. However, he was duly elected in a free and fair election in 1987. DOJ’s tactics of setting him up in a sting operation just to run him out of office was lowdown.

Back then when Barry ran for mayor again in 1995, he would win. I grew up in Washington, D.C., during Barry’s heyday. I knew how popular he was, and I also felt that the DOJ had no business spending $40 million to entrap a mayor out of vindictiveness.

This is why Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination, and the Republicans are stuck with him for at least one more run. He can win, but his chances are not that good right now. He lost in 2020 in an election he should have won. He was the incumbent. Things were leaning his way, and Joe Biden looked weak.

But, as expected, Trump made terrible moves during the Covid-19 pandemic. Then, instead of conceding defeat and preparing to run again in 2024, he tried to overturn the election by force and trickery. According to the January 6 report, he conspired to overturn the results with multiple plots. This did not win him many new voters. He will likely be convicted in Washington, D.C., further damaging him.

But do not be surprised if it gets interesting next year. Populism is a strong force in the world of politics. The cult of Donald Trump, as backward as it appears, is going nowhere.

And Washington, D.C., to this day, still loves Marion Barry. If he had never ventured to that hotel that night over 30 years ago, he would have never been forced out of D.C. politics. He would likely have died as Mayor for Life.

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This post was previously published on Brian Gilmore’s blog.

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