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Why do we place so much trust in positive predictions from experts? Because most of us prefer a sense of certainty in our daily lives.
Optimistic predictions meet this need. When a financial advisor tells us, “Based on your current savings and investments plan, you’ll be in the safe zone in retirement,” we want to accept this positive claim at face value. Or, when a home valuation website suggests our home’s value has appreciated dramatically in recent months, we want to agree without hesitation. Accepting such assertions uncritically can provide us a sense of confidence.
Assertions about our financial status in retirement and the value of our homes are two examples of forecasts we encounter in our work and personal lives. Such forecasts are based on many observations, which yield large amounts of data analyzed using statistical models. We tend to perceive math and science as the sources of certainties. Thus, the fact that forecasts are based on scientific methods and mathematical calculations increases our confidence in them.
Another reason we may readily embrace positive forecasts is that they seem based on objective, undeniable facts.
Despite their basis in empirical observation and mathematics, no forecast can provide certainty. The reason involves the logic underlying all forecasts: Forecasting techniques draw inferences from features in a sample of data to reach broader conclusions. The leap, from sample to generalization, is called induction. But induction has a fundamental limitation: we can’t be certain of unobserved things based on things we’ve already observed.
Because induction is the foundational logic of forecasting, forecasts are subject to this limitation.
Yet once we recognize the limitation of induction in forecasting, it can be easy to overcorrect confidence in forecasts by starting to doubt them all. Strong skepticism, however, isn’t necessary for a realistic understanding of forecasts.
Use these tools to demystify the logic underlying forecasts and recognize their limitations:
1. Build your uncertainty tolerance
Given that a primary motivation for seeking forecasts is to reduce indeterminacy about the future, increasing your tolerance for uncertainty is fundamental to approaching forecasts realistically. You can build your uncertainty tolerance by first recognizing that being uncertain is not a failing. You can also identify your areas of expertise — your core knowledge and skills that can be applied in different situations where you experience uncertainty. Finally, you can identify what is under your control that can reduce uncertainty (your experience, interactions with peers, and sense of purpose).
2. Practice counterfactual thinking
Counterfactual thinking involves deliberately attempting to disprove a conclusion you’re inclined to agree with. If you identify contrary facts, or disconfirming scenarios, and are able to address them, you can be more certain that your original conclusion is correct. Employing counterfactual thinking starts at an early age. Imagine children on a playground near a building. One youngster suggests practicing baseball near the building. Another youngster responds, “What if I miss the ball and it breaks a window?” The second youngster’s response is a counterfactual: a potential fact that undercuts the proposal of playing baseball near windows.
Maybe you’ve engaged in a discussion similar to this: one person is adamant that higher employee moral causes greater productivity. Another person counters that when people are afraid of being laid off, they’re more productive. The second person offers a counterfactual, a piece of information that could disprove the first person’s assertion. Perhaps the counterfactual claim — people are more productive when they are afraid — is mistaken. Finding evidence to prove that it is mistaken strengthens the validity of the assertion. If you can identify what would disprove a conclusion, and overcome this possible disconfirming evidence, you can be more confident the conclusion is correct.
Counterfactual thinking can also involve deliberately seeking points of view from people who differ from you. Discuss forecasts with friends or colleagues who have a background, an education, and a perspective different from your own. Their responses can facilitate counterfactual thinking and help you better appraise a forecast’s quality and relevance for you.
3. Harness probability judgments
Without realizing it, you make probability judgements every day. You may start a work day asking yourself, what’s the likelihood that I’ll get to work more quickly on the interstate versus side streets? What’s the likelihood my flight will be delayed, making an earlier flight more prudent? When you answer questions such as these, you make probability judgments.
To appraise forecasts realistically, use probability judgments more deliberately. Consider that some future scenarios are possible, some may be probable, but none are foregone conclusions. Recognize and avoid folk wisdom and magical thinking that can cloud your assessment of a forecast. Examples of folk wisdom include adages such as, “If it can go wrong, it will go wrong,” or “Lightening doesn’t strike in same place twice.” In reality, one negative event doesn’t categorically rule out the immediate occurrence of another negative event. Similarly, all possible negative events aren’t equally likely to occur.
Together, these tools enable you to decipher the credibility of forecasts so that you don’t blindly rely on their veracity. In giving forecasts some necessary scrutiny, you can more accurately interpret them and make your own well-informed predictions.
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Haywood Spangler, Ph.D., M.Div., is the founder and principal of Work & Think, LLC. He helps clients make complex decisions that include a realistic understanding of uncertainty. His Spangler Ethical Reasoning Assessment® (SERA®) is used across industries and around the world, enabling individuals to combine critical thinking and values to make complex decisions. He’s a keynote speaker, a corporate consultant, a researcher, and an author. His new book is Reasoning for Business: The Inquirer’s Guide to Decision Making (Routledge, 2026). Learn more at haywoodspangler.com.
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