“Beware the Ides of March,’‘ warned Julius Caesar centuries ago. But in present-day March, with March Madness once again upon us, our minds are more on Caesar’s Sports Book front-man, JB Smoove, that this fateful advice.
Each year, College basketball teams that enter the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament as first round favorites, holding the two through six seeds, would stand to benefit from listening to old-school Caesar’s advice. Yet, each year, select favorites are sent packing in upsets and in their place comes a Cinderella team poised to potentially make a big run.
With March Madness brackets being filled out across the country and everyone trying to find the next Cinderella teams, I attempted to find the five most likely Cinderellas in this year’s NCAA Tournament. For purposes of this article, “Cinderella Teams” will be defined as teams that are not predicted to win their first round matchup but who will nonetheless advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Therefore, in my view, any of the teams on this list can win two games, and in one team’s case on this list, three games.
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When evaluating potential Cinderellas, there are seven criteria that I consider most important: Seniors, clutch players, free throw shooting, matchups, teams that specialize in something, teams that have beaten Quadrant One teams, and teams with experienced guard play. I will rank the five Cinderella teams in order of how confident I am that they are going to make a run.
1.Murray State (7 seed) (30-2, 18-0)
KenPom=27
NET=21
2-1 vs Q1
Murray State has no glaring weaknesses, and they are very well-rounded. They is a versatile team that can defend, play offense, shoot and score down low. Murray State has not lost a game since December 22nd. They have two scoring guards in Tevin Brown and Justice Hill and a great scoring forward in KJ Williams.
Their flaw is that they’ve got a difficult road to the Sweet Sixteen. They first have to play what many consider to be an under-seeded San Francisco and then would have to play an elite Kentucky team on the road.
2.South Dakota Stats (13 seed) (30-4, 18-0)
KenPom=71
Net=65
South Dakota State is an offensive juggernaut. They are ranked 12th in KenPom offense and are ranked first nationally in effective field goal percentage at 59.7 percent, and 3-point percentage at 44.2 percent.
South Dakota State are also second in points per game in the country at 86.7 percent. They are led by Sophomore Baylor Scheierman who shoots 47.3 percent from three point range. Yes you heard that right 47.3 percent from three while shooting five threes a game. Scheierman also leads the team with 7.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals.
South Dakota State starts by playing a Providence team that many consider overrated and the luckiest team in college basketball. Despite being the one seed, they just got blown out in their conference tournament. In the second round SD State most likely will have to play Iowa, which would be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament. If this happens, expect a shoot out that South Dakota State has the potential of winning.
Their one glaring weakness is they have very bad defense, according to metrics.
3.Rutgers (11th seed/play in) (18-13, 12-8)
KenPom=74
NET=77
Rutgers is the weirdest team in college basketball. They have many high profile wins as well as terrible losses. As a fan, I have been trying to erase that Lafayette game from my mind… and it is not working.
They are led by three seniors in Caleb McConnell, Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. McConnell is the Big-Ten Defensive Player of the year, and Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr are as clutch as they come. Their overall metrics are not that impressive, but their calling card has been their quality wins. Rutgers is 8-6 against the KenPom Top 40 teams and 6-6 against Quadrant One teams. They are also 15-1 when holding opponents to under 65 points. Rutgers just seems to win against teams that should be better than them metrics wise. They would have to win three games to make the Sweet Sixteen.
Rutgers starts with Notre Dame, which should be an easy matchup. They then would match up against Alabama, who has a similar profile to Rutgers in that they have also lost to horrible teams and beaten the best teams. This would be a winnable game for Rutgers. Their hardest test would be Texas Tech in the round of 32 as Texas Tech is an all around great team. That said, they have beaten better teams this season. Time has proven to not bet against the Knights.
Their flaws are that they are 3-12 when allowing over 65 points and – as stated earlier – they have the worst metrics in the tournament.
4.Iowa State (11 seed) (20-12, 7-11)
KenPom=48
NET=49
Iowa State has an impressive 4-5 record against Quadrant One teams. They win through their suffocating defense. On offense they are led by Senior Isaiah Brockington who is a certified star that leads Iowa State in points and rebounds.
They have a first round matchup against a vulnerable LSU team playing with no coach. They would then most likely have to play Wisconsin, who has also been a vulnerable when teams have been able to shut down Big 10 player of the year Johnny Davis. If any team can shut down Johnny Davis, it is this Iowa State team.
Their Achilles heel is their offense. When Brockington is not playing well this whole team struggles offensively and they have failed to score 55 points seven times this season. They even scored a terrible 36 points against Oklahoma State.
5.Loyola Chicago (10 seed) (25-7, 13-5)
KenPom=24
NET=23
Loyola Chicago is 8-6 vs Quadrant one and Quadrant two opponents. They are the metric darlings of the tournament. Loyola Chicago is battle tested, as four starters returned this year from the team that made their Sweet Sixteen run last year when they knocked off the Number One seed Illinois in the Round of 32. Lucas Williamson is their star guard offensively and led the Missouri Valley Conference in steals. Their coach is Drew Valentine who is only 30 years old.
They play a very vulnerable Ohio State team in the first round. Ohio State has played really badly as of late and they have had defensive struggles all season. A round of 32 matchup with Villanova will prove to be much tougher, but if there is one thing college basketball fans have learned from the last two tournaments it is that one should never count out Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago. This does seem to be God’s favorite college basketball team.
Their Achilles heel is that they are undersized and not great offensively. Because they are undersized this can cause serious matchup problems in their games..
My honorable mention is TCU who are great defensively. But in the Second Round, the Horned Frogs would need to go up against Arizona, who I believe is the best team in the tournament.
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