Picture a world where truth is a rare commodity and misinformation reigns. Some hold the key to knowledge, while others deliberately spread falsehoods. This scenario is close to reality. We know deceivers exist, yet the deceivers often emerge victorious.
Some humans are driven by a desire to know the truth, while others deceive themselves, preferring to perpetuate their internal lies. They would rather lie to uphold a belief than admit they were wrong. This self-deception plays a significant role in decision-making.
Some know the truth and pretend they don’t. They use this withholding of information to help them control others.
These human traits come into play in a game called Werewolf. Originally named Mafia by Dimitry Davidoff in 1986, he developed the game to combine research with his teaching duties. A way to study psychology in an interactive fashion that taught him and his students about how our minds work. How humans work.
Many intangibles of the human mind are still a mystery.
Initially, the Russian social deduction game was named Mafia and Villagers, but at a point, it was determined that “Werewolves and Villagers” was the future of the game. Perhaps there being gangs, mafias, and other sorts in every area of the world is why the term is not used. It hits too close to home, which also emphasizes why, more often than not, the minority wins the game. Denial is the lesson of the game.
For the sake of modernization, we will use the term werewolf. In the game’s original, most straightforward form, a group of ten or more humans is required: one moderator, two werewolves, and the rest are villagers. Only the two werewolves and the moderator know who the werewolves are.
There are two phases to the game, a Night and Day phase. In the Night phase, the werewolves silently pick a villager to kill, and during the Day phase, all remaining villagers and the werewolves discuss who to vote out of the village as a suspected werewolf. Everyone but the moderator is blindfolded during the Night phase, and the moderator verbally tells the two werewolves to remove their blindfolds and conspire together to agree on which villager to vote off.
The werewolves must lie to avoid being voted off, and the villagers are not allowed to pretend to be werewolves.
The game ends when the werewolves are voted out or only one villager is left.
Many studies have developed around this game, including computer simulations.
“With a simulation, they confirmed that 50 mafiosi (werewolves) would have almost a 50% chance to win among 10,000 villagers.”
In the above scenario, an informed minority, which is .5% the size of an uninformed majority, can rule and influence as desired. This is in a game where most participants accept the “bad ones” exist and know two people are lying to them for survival reasons.
This means that 50 people who aren’t afraid to push their mission, using truths or lies, can best 10,000 people. If those 50 manage to recruit from the 10,000, that percentage of wins will increase drastically.
You see, life doesn’t follow the rules of “a game,” even if set rules are in place. Many humans out there have no qualms about making stuff up to get their way. They don’t come across as liers because their internal belief system doesn’t perceive it as a lie. Their internal belief system sees it as a statement presented for personal survival reasons. Therefore, the term “lie” is not applicable.
In the game, the villagers know two in their midst are lying for survival, and the players are looking for it in everybody but themselves. They are an informed majority. Yet, it is still likely the werewolves will win. If the werewolves are good at persuading or are of the sort that “it is not a lie if it is related to my survival” type. If survival is essential in the game, as in life, then when is a lie a lie, and when is it survival from the villain.
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According to Princeton research, an uninformed majority has balancing effects and is necessary for the success of Democracy. Unlike the Werewolves and Villagers game, many out in the world are uninformed by choice or design. Much of this depends on where in the world they live and their innate tendencies. It is harder to be uninformed than in the past; news is not passed through the town crier; it is passed whirlwind style through the internet, news media, and social platforms. The information sometimes changes hourly and is presented non-stop. With content farms producing misinformation at record speed, it intertwines with data and becomes unrecognizable to many. People are now overwhelmed with information, and opinions are often presented as data.
Do we even have an uninformed majority in 2024? I would say no; we have a misinformed majority. A majority of people have access to the internet, to this onslaught of information, therefore it is harder than ever to find an uninformed human, and more likely to find a misinformed one.
The Princeton research says the uninformed majority has apathy or a general lack of exposure to popular culture and their mindset. Therefore, they will follow the majority when they do choose to participate. Think herd mentality. If people are in a group and don’t know where the group is going, they tend to follow the majority. Do you ever go to a sports game and see a couple of long lines of people entering the main gate, with another gate nearby with only a few people using it? That is what I am talking about.
It will be another 50 years before we know if this new worldwide flood of information brings us together or divides us further. If it makes us easier or harder to control and deceive us. The last couple decades of defining people by their individualities and accepting them for it has led to an increased knowledge of the vast types of mindsets worldwide.
In the meantime, at least more humans know that no one has the same mindset as them and that we are all shades of thought, products of our lives, and generational teachings. It is now all smashed together into reels on the internet for our entertainment or disdain. The ice bucket challenge reminds me that many enjoy doing what others do, while influencers remind me that followers follow individuals.
So, as you wander around the village that is the Earth, remember that the humans around you are just as likely to be werewolves as villagers or, realistically, a blend of the two. Choose wisely.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)
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This post was previously published on medium.com.
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From The Good Men Project on Medium
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Photo credit: Priscilla Du Preez 🇨🇦 on Unsplash
