Is Chris Christie Done For?

It looks like Chris Christie’s presidential ambitions are doomed.

A few days ago Jonathan Bernstein declared that New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s hopes of becoming the president are probably over. After summarizing Christie’s recent troubles, Bernstein argues that his White House ambitions are probably doomed:

I’m cautious when it comes to burying presidential candidates who appeared to be viable but have fallen on hard times. The classic case is John McCain, given up for dead by many midway through the 2008 cycle, only to rebound and win the nomination. There are plenty of others who appeared to be out of it before suddenly catching fire. And Bacon does note some Christie support…

…Christie has always been too moderate for his party, though without holding the kind of fully disqualifying policy positions of, say, Rudy Giuliani. Making up for such liabilities with bluster risks misfires. And, yes, scandals matter, especially when the party has plenty of other solid available alternatives.

The thing to remember here is that it’s not individual voters being turned off by Christie’s various gaffes that really matter. After all the overwhelming majority of voters aren’t paying attention at this point in the 2016 campaign cycle. Rather it’s the so called “expanded party network” of donors, campaign professionals, activists, and other Republican elected officials that’s currently sizing up candidates and picking sides that really matter. And when they look at Christie they don’t necessarily see a great governor, they might just see someone who could be under federal indictment soon.

These sorts of perceptions are what’s really killing Christie’s chances in the so called “invisible primary” stage of the race that we’re still in. After all why give money or public support to someone whose political career might crash and burn at any moment? The result is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy where bad news for Christie in turn creates more bad news for Christie. Similar to how if people suspect a bank of being on shaky financial ground, they’ll start withdrawing their money, which in turn will put the bank of shaky financial ground, meaning that banks can fail even when there’s no logical reason for them to.

Or as Bernstein puts it, “Barring indictments, he doesn’t appear to be disqualified, yet. But all the evidence suggests he’s losing badly.” Unfortunately for Christie, that’s appears to be exactly right.

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Photo by Mel Evans/AP