The evidence seems to be growing: as the sell-by date for diesel and petrol cars approaches, with growing numbers of new owners wondering if they made the wrong decision, plenty of others are choosing a more radical option for their daily mobility needs: two- and three-wheeled vehicles.
Sales of electric bikes, which glide effortlessly up hills, along with electric scooters and motorcycles, which will replace an already significant urban transportation fleet, are rising sharply, and seem set to meet the forecasts that organizations such as McKinsey made after the end of the pandemic about the growing importance of micro-mobility.
In the year when we are going to see an increasing number of major cities closing their centers to private cars, electric bike manufacturers are attracting investors, while more and more cities, like London are creating bike lanes, distributing electric bicycles to civil servants and replacing delivery vans. Meanwhile, France is offering up to €4,000 to people who trade in their car for an electric bicycle.
But electric bike, scooters and motorcycles, which some studies already say are the future of urban transport, are not some first-world whim: in what is expected to be the world’s largest market in a few years, India, they are the basis of a revolution. The rickshaws and mopeds that once crowded the streets of Indian cities are being rapidly replaced by their electric equivalents, which enable users to save on fuel and maintenance and, in many cases, to replace their batteries quickly at street-level facilities. These vehicles cost around $1,000 where the average income is $2,400, but people see them as a solution to their commuting problems or as a way of earning a living.
All the signs are that in the next decade, the increase in the sale of EVs and the disappearance of petrol and diesel cars, will be eclipsed by the sale of electric bicycles and other similar vehicles. In fact, there are already proposals to simply sell electric motors that can easily be attached to conventional bikes with a rear disc brake, that gives 60 kilometers of range.
Quantifying the energy and emissions savings that the spread of such a change of habits could bring about is a sobering experience. Obviously, we are not talking about a one-size-fits-all solution; nevertheless, it could further prompt many people to rethink many of their usual commuting needs, especially as these trips become more and more occasional due to the growth of distributed work.
We are heading towards a very different future. At least, if we want to have a future.
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This post was previously published on MEDIUM.COM.
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