Individual gaffes rarely matter in the long run, but nobody running for president want’s the reputation of being a blunderer.
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If one thing is true about our political media it’s this: they tend to massively inflate the important of “gaffes” in affecting political outcomes. Probably the most obvious recent example of this happened back in 2012 when Barack Obama’s performance in the first presidential debate was widely portrayed as so bad it would probably cost him the election.
In reality of course the debate had little to no effect on the eventual outcome, where Obama won reelection easily.
The reason? Well gaffes just don’t tend to stay in the public’s mind very long. Sure people may react with outrage over things like “randomgate” or other purported gaffes, but soon enough even big gaffes fall of the front page, and thus from the public’s mind.
But that doesn’t mean that gaffes can never have an impact, just ask Todd Akin. Which is why Jeb Bush may find himself in trouble if he keeps making controversial comments. The latest dustup happened after Jeb responded to the mass shooting at Oregon’s Umpqua Community College by announcing that he didn’t think America’s gun policy should change because “stuff happens.”
Jeb’s response provoked a flurry of comments about whether these comments where offensive, insensitive, or not. Feel free to make up your own mind, but it’s fair to point out that the political media and people on social media certainly raised a bit of ruckus over it.
Arguing about what counts as a gaffe or not is not really the important point here though. The important point is that Jeb Bush is essentially auditioning before Republican Party actors that are trying to decide on a nominee for president. Since Jeb has a history of saying gaffe-like things (and comes from a family that’s been saying weird stuff for decades) the big question is if stuff like “stuff happens” will cause Republican Party actors to start viewing Jeb as a blunderer who says boneheaded stuff all the time. If they do they might start considering jumping ship on his campaign or lining up against him because they don’t think he has the political skills to compete in the big leagues.
Thus while a gaffe (or non-gaffe) like saying “stuff happens” in response to a mass shooting won’t affect how people will vote in Iowa or New Hampshire next year, it could be affecting how party actors view Jeb Bush right now. And since most party actors haven’t picked a candidate so far, things like negative media coverage or the perception of political incompetence could cost Jeb the Republican nomination in the end.
Source: 30dB.com – Jeb Bush and Oregon
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He didn’t say that. I know you know it. Shall I post the transcript?