Spain has long had one of the highest levels of unemployment in the European Union. To all intents and purposes, a modern and prosperous country, a mature democracy, with universal health coverage and regarded enviously by many of its neighbors for its quality of life, Spain is also a popular tourism destination, attracting visitors from all over the world.
And yet, the figures show that in many parts of the country, and particularly among the young, joblessness far outstrips levels among its neighbors. If any other developed country had the kind of unemployment figures we have, there would surely be riots in the streets. With the exception of protests in 2011/12, the issue doesn’t seem to generate much anger.
How does Spain manage to keep its very high unemployment figures from generating streeet demonstrations and social conflict? Has it discovered something that other countries do not know?
One reason there is no rioting on the streets is that half of the adult population depends on some kind of government assistance, a state pension, or publicly funded employment (link in Spanish).
In several regions, people living below a certain level of income receive an allowance that allows them to maintain a modest standard of living. In this country, although extreme poverty is rising, and the income gap growing, the number of homeless people is also lower than in the vast majority of our neighbors or comparable economies, and very few people go hungry.
For years now, Spain has been traveling a route other countries will soon have to follow: creating systems that provide for the population’s welfare, independent of their professional circumstances. In Spain, the safety net that covers the risk of a person becoming unemployed works reasonably well and for a time that is considered adequate, and no one, absolutely no one, should have health problems or die for lack of health coverage, as happens in other supposedly developed societies.
I’m not arguing that the path Spain has been following for decades has been the result of a conscious decision or of some kind of clairvoyance: it has simply happened this way because none of the governments we have had have been willing to face the kind of problems that would have arisen if they had acted otherwise. Nor do I claim, of course, that the type of coverage provided for the Spanish population is adequate or is managed properly. But it does exist, I think I can say that it does exist.
What will happen in many other countries — in fact, in ALL countries — as time goes on? Simply that as technology increases its levels of productivity and efficiency, fewer and fewer people will be required to work. In other words, most of the jobs that a person does today will be replaced by technology, by algorithms or by robots of some kind.
What are these companies going to do as more and more people lose their jobs? For companies, there is simply no choice: if they don’t reduce their wage bills they will be less competitive, and therefore end up in trouble. New technology soon stops being optional and instead becomes mandatory. Therefore, we will see more and more occupations become obsolete, as they are taken over by machines. What was once a crazy thought is now beginning to become a reality.
If people are going to lose their jobs en masse, the only way to prevent a revolution is to redefine the relationship between people and work. That is, income will not come from work, but from a redefinition of what we know today as money, because it makes no sense that, in an increasingly productive society, anybody should live below the poverty line.
This can only be obtained through some kind of universal basic income. Spain has pioneered a model, but it has not really invented anything, but has been patching up the situation with a very large number of subsidies conditioned to different situations. Turn those subsidies, which generate multiple problems (stigmatization, cost of supervision, possibility of political misuse, etc.), into a basic income that we all receive, regardless of our situation, and that many will pay back as taxes if they don’t need it. Work? Of course, go ahead if you can find something that motivates you and it allows you to earn even more.
We know what the critics say about such models encouraging laziness, but before we make any knee-jerk reactions, let’s read a little, discuss the options, and think hard. This is not going to happen tomorrow, but given the pace of technological change, it’s not far down the road either.
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This post was previously published on Enrique Dans’ blog.
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