Why Are We So Certain We’re Right Even When We’re Wrong?

During highly polarized political seasons we’re all guilty of confidently sticking to various arguments even when presented with evidence we hadn’t known before that indicates something we’re not ready to accept: we’re wrong.

New research published in PLOS One labels this pervasive phenomenon as the “illusion of information adequacy.” People believe they have enough information to stake out a definitive position or make an informed decision without pausing to consider what they might not know. The implications of this newly identified bias go beyond simple rudeness, hardening some of the most calcified debates about abortion, affirmative action or capital punishment. The illusion can show up in business deals, job interviews and parenting moments as well as during international diplomacy.

“How well we navigate interpersonal differences implicates a myriad of high stakes relationships, from marriages to international conflicts,” said Hunter Gehlbach, an educational psychologist at Johns Hopkins University and first author on the study, The Illusion of Information Adequacy. “Most of the time we completely forget that we ‘don’t know what we don’t know’ and consequently pass judgment on others and make decisions as though we have adequate information.

“This gap between how much information we actually have and how much we think we have is a major catalyst of misunderstanding, conflict, and ruined relationships,” he added. “As a parent I have gotten in trouble more than once by lecturing my kids about forgetting to take out the trash, only to find out later that trash service had been delayed that week. Even with these smaller examples, the accumulation of these minor misunderstandings can ruin relationships over time.”

Gehlbach and co-authors Carly D. Robinson, a senior researcher at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Education, and Angus Fletcher, an English professor at The Ohio State University, conducted an experiment that provided three sets of participants with various information about a fictional school that lacked adequate water. The control group possessed all available information about the school’s options—merge with another school with adequate water or remain independent and hope for a solution. Each treatment group was only provided with information about one of those two options.

The researchers found that the study groups established definitive positions supporting the singular options they had been given information about. “We found that those with less information manifested greater confidence in their recommendations,” the paper states.

The authors did provide a solution: “Perhaps the mere act of wondering: ‘Do I have enough information?’ could infuse a willingness to allow more benefit of the doubt,” the paper states. Gehlbach also notes that, “Teachers can also have a powerful role in helping students develop more intellectual humility by regularly asking, ‘What else do you need to know?’ and infusing a disposition of curiosity.”

“Although people may not know what they do not know, perhaps there is wisdom in assuming that some relevant information is probably missing,” the paper states. “In a world of prodigious polarization and dubious information, this humility, and corresponding curiosity about what information is lacking, may help us better take the perspective of others before we pass judgment on them.”

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