Every new messenger brings evil report
‘Bout armies on the march and time running short.[1]
May 9th is an important day in Europe. It is the anniversary date of the victory over the forces of Nazi Germany. Moscow holds a huge military parade, massed infantry goose-stepping down the wide lane, jeeps with mounted machine guns driving in formation, tanks clanking and creaking, followed by the main event. Intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads carried on mobile launchers, huge imposing launch tubes, mounted on monstrous green trucks. Rounded, and bulbous, it breathes an air of destruction.
It is normally more sedate in Western Europe. Honestly elected leaders must be more careful when it comes to gaudy displays of armed force. The European Union was built on the premise that trade was the key to peaceful international relations. Their celebrations revolve around cooperation between ancient adversaries.
Old and new have clashed terribly in Ukraine.
This is a small, relatively well contained war, though it is existential to Ukrainians. Assuming it continues, and if history has taught us anything, it will. Modern nations are remarkably like ancient city states, they would rather burn an entire generation to ash than admit they lost. Even worse; explaining they shouldn’t have been involved to begin with. Nobody wants to admit they started a war based on incorrect, or even foolish assumptions. Even though it happens often. No matter what the original reasons wars almost always grow out of control, beyond any measure provided by the original justification. This war was started on the flimsiest of excuses and has already grown far beyond what the Russians predicted or expected.
Jim Taiclet, CEO of Lockheed Martin, was being interviewed on Face the Nation. Margaret Brennan asked him about the availability of Javelin antitank missiles, one of the most effective weapons in the Ukrainian military battle against the much larger Russian army. Mr. Taiclet was enthusiastic about the company’s ability to increase production, from 2,100 hundred a year to 4,000 a year. It will “will take a number of months, maybe even a couple of years to get there because we have to get our supply chain to-to also crank up.”
Mr. Taiclet explained the logistical problems associated with supplying weapons to Ukraine while defending our nation in places as far away as Iran, North Korea, China. With any luck we can prove Mexico and Canada are threats and need to arm the borders. Profits will skyrocket.
It is assumed, though, not proven, the US has given one third of its supply of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. Further, it is assumed the US had between 20,000 and 25,000. It won’t take much of a war to burn through the remaining supply. On the other side, Russia is reported to have lost 650 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, along with their crews, in this short, violent, pointless war. We know how long it takes to build a Javelin missile, and we know it takes five months to build an Abrams M1 A1 main battle tank, and the Russians are probably about as productive as we are. They certainly don’t last that long on a modern battlefield.
It comes down to an accounting problem. More weapons are being destroyed than manufactured. What happens next. There are three options.
- Everybody gives up, offers their deepest regrets and apologies, and goes home. Not likely, but we can dream.
- They turn to sticks and rocks, poverty, the great equalizer. Fat chance.
- It goes up the chain, to the weapons we still have. They go Nuclear. And the war grows to include everybody.
And that’s where we’re at now. People are dying, people are profiting, and the world is standing on the edge. It is an odd twist of technology weapons are so good they’ve made themselves obsolete. They only have one use, deterrence. We can make them, but not as fast as we can destroy them, and certainly not as fast as they can destroy us.
[1] Caribbean Wind by Bob Dylan
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Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash