A Georgia grand jury has wrapped up its investigation and indicted Donald Trump along with 18 others on multiple charges, including racketeering, false statements, and being part of a criminal organization. After interviewing over seventy-five witnesses, including Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Guiliani. Guiliani was also indicted along with former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and a slew of Trump lawyers.
If Donald Trump is found guilty, what comes next? We saw what happened when Steve Bannon faced federal charges for defrauding Trump donors out of millions, claiming to be building a wall. Donald Trump pardoned Bannon just before leaving the White House; Bannon promptly got involved in heading 1/6 activities from a “war room” in the Willard Intercontinental Hotel. But Trump isn’t facing federal charges; he is looking at state charges in Georgia, so what happens next?
Felony convictions in Georgia generally require at least a one-year sentence, but there is such a thing as felony probation. The judge overseeing the case could release Trump with several conditions attached, including unannounced home visits, which may impede his ability to live out of state. The judge would have to believe that Trump no longer represents a threat, and Trump’s continuing social media rants may make that case harder to make.
Trump could get a pardon. In Georgia, the Governor, sometimes Trump loyalist Brian Kemp, does not have the power to issue pardons. That power resides within the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles, a five-member board of appointees by the Governor. The current Board has two Black members, all of whom have experience as prosecutors in Georgia.
The Board has a history of being free with pardons; between 2013–2018, they issued 3,449 pardons covering over 7,000 offenses. Recent scrutiny has caused the Board to be more strict since 2018. There is a set of guidelines, including one stating someone isn’t eligible for a pardon until completing their entire sentence. Lest you think that means Trump would have to serve time, there is still the possibility of parole.
The same Board has the opportunity to parole Trump. There are written guidelines based on the type of crime, age of the criminal, criminal history, other pending charges against the applicant, and likelihood to re-offend. The Board normally uses those criteria to determine what percentage of one’s sentence they have to serve. Trump has no criminal history and is old, which works in his favor. The Board must be willfully blind to other federal and state investigations against Trump and his ongoing behavior. Parole would also require Trump to admit guilt and apologize unless there was a preponderance of evidence exonerating him.
The Georgia board does have discretionary power to throw out all the guidelines, so even a guilty verdict doesn’t mean he’ll serve jail time. There will always be someone to say an ex-President in jail would harm the country. So would proving once and for all he’s above the law. We will see!
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This post was previously published on MEDIUM.COM.
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